White House says there's a 'credible prospect' Russia could invade Ukraine before Winter Olympics end
- National security advisor Jake Sullivan said there's a "credible prospect" Russia could invade Ukraine before the end of the Olympics.
- The Biden administration has repeatedly warned Americans in Ukraine to leave.
National security advisor Jake Sullivan on Friday said there's a "credible prospect" Russia could invade Ukraine before the Winter Olympics are set to end on February 20.
The national security advisor pushed back on reports that suggested the US has concluded Russian President Vladimir Putin had made a firm decision to invade.
"We are not saying a final decision has been made by President Putin," Sullivan said at a White House press briefing. "What we are saying is that we have a sufficient level of concern based on what we are seeing on the ground, and what our intelligence analysts have picked up, that we are sending this clear message."
The Olympics have failed to deter Russia from invasion in the past. On the first day of the 2008 Olympic games in Beijing, Russia invaded Georgia and in 2014, Russia attacked Ukraine and annexed Crimea just three days before the end of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia.
Sullivan also reiterated calls from the Biden administration that Americans in Ukraine leave as soon as possible, warning that a Russian invasion would likely begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could kill civilians of all nationalities. A rapid assault on Kyiv — the Ukrainian capital — is a "possible line of attack" by Russia, he said.
"If a Russian attack on Ukraine precedes it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality. A subsequent ground invasion would involve the onslaught of a massive force with virtually no notice, communications to arrange a departure could be severed and commercial transit halted," Sullivan said.
"The president will not be putting the lives of our men and women in uniform at risk by sending them into a war zone to rescue people who could have left now but chose not to. So, we're asking people to make the responsible choice," Sullivan added.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the Olympics will not stop Russia from invading.
"Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border," Blinken said during a press conference in Melbourne, Australia. "We're in a window when an invasion could begin at any time and, to be clear, that includes during the Olympics."
The US is evacuating American staff from its OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine by February 15, according to a report from the Kyiv Post. Non-essential EU staff in Ukraine were told to evacuate Friday, according to a report from Politico.
In another move indicative of the growing alarm over the prospect of a Russian invasion, the UK Foreign Office on Friday advised all British nationals in Ukraine to leave immediately.
Diplomatic efforts by the US and its allies to stave off a broader conflict have so far failed to yield any major breakthroughs. Russia has made demands for binding security guarantees from the West, including permanently banning Ukraine from NATO. But the alliance and Washington have remained firm that this demand is a non-starter, underscoring that NATO's open door policy is not up for discussion.
The Kremlin claims it does not plan to invade, despite its aggressive posture toward Ukraine. Russia has roughly 130,000 troops on Ukraine's border at present, and is currently engaged in joint military exercises with Belarusian forces in Belarus.
Russia in 2014 invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, and since that year has supported rebels in a war against Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region. As Putin blames NATO for the contentious dynamic in the region, experts say that that the Russian leader — a former KGB operative — views Ukraine as unfinished business and is "deadly serious" about taking action.