What to watch at COP28 Dubai, the UN climate summit

• United Arab Emirates, a wealthy petrostate, is hosting this year's UN climate summit.
• Countries will debate cutbacks to burning fossil fuels and climate funding for poorer countries.
• On the first day, countries agreed to some rules for the loss and damage fund.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — There's always one big question heading into the UN's annual climate conference: What would success look like?

Several major themes emerged ahead of the two-week event that kicks off today in Dubai, where some 70,000 climate diplomats, nongovernmental organizations, activists, and reporters from around the world are expected to gather. The central tension is whether this year's host — a wealthy petrostate whose largest exports are oil and natural gas — can corral nearly 200 other participating nations toward cutting back on the fossil fuels that are largely driving the climate crisis.

The United Arab Emirates appointed Sultan Al Jaber, the head of the state-owned oil company Adnoc, to preside over the summit. He's also the CEO of Masdar, a state-owned renewable-energy company.

Climate advocates say that Al Jaber's role as a fossil-fuel executive is a conflict of interest. Documents obtained by the Centre for Climate Reporting and first reported by the BBC suggest those concerns might not be misplaced. The documents list talking points for Emirati officials meeting with other countries ahead of COP28 and include the promotion of oil and gas deals, as well as renewable-energy deals.

Al Jaber said during a press conference Wednesday he never saw the talking points or used them in his discussions, characterizing the report as "false" and "incorrect."

"Every meeting I have conducted with every government, or any other stakeholder, has always been centered around one thing and one thing only, and that is my COP28 agenda and how we can collectively, for the first time ever, adopt a mindset that is centered around implementation and action to keep 1.5 within reach," Al Jaber said.

He was referring to the Paris agreement's goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030, compared with preindustrial levels. Climate scientists say that surpassing this threshold would cause catastrophes, including more extreme wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, and floods. People are already facing the consequences of the climate crisis, with the deadly heat waves this year being just one example.

Yet the world isn't doing enough to hold warming to 1.5 degrees; indeed, the planet has already warmed nearly 1.2 degrees Celsius, according to the UN. Countries need to slash greenhouse-gas emissions by 42% in the coming years to stay on track. This is partly why this year's conference is so important. For the first time, there will be a "global stocktake" — UN speak for a climate report card. We already know countries aren't cutting emissions fast enough, but in Dubai, leaders could agree on how to close the gap.

Al Jaber outlined a lot of priorities that would help: tripling renewable-energy capacity, fast-tracking energy efficiency across industries, and a "phasedown" of fossil fuels. He also emphasized the need for wealthy countries to make good on their promises to finance climate action in poorer nations and work out the details of a "loss and damage" fund to help those nations rebuild after climate-fueled disasters.

There already was an early win on that front during the opening ceremony on Thursday. Countries agreed to some overarching rules for the loss and damage fund: It will temporarily be run by the World Bank, contributions are voluntary, and the money can come from both the public and private sector.

However, the fund doesn't an overarching financial goal. A UN-commissioned report said that based on recent disasters, costs of loss and damage could be as much as $150 billion to $300 billion by 2030. So far, UAE and Germany each have pledged the largest sums — at $100 million.

Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of World Resources Institute, told reporters at the summit, "While inadequate to the scale of what is needed, these early contributions will play a critical role in restoring trust between developed and developing countries as the UN climate talks get underway."

The progress follows a landmark deal at last year's UN climate meeting in Egypt, where the loss and damage fund was first established after a three-decade push by developing countries. They argued that rich economies like the US and those in Europe should be held accountable for their history producing much of the world's emissions.

There's one other development that suggests Dubai could lead to more historic climate action. Earlier this month, the US and China agreed to ramp up renewable energy to displace fossil fuels. As the world's two largest polluters, no other countries have more power to shape climate policy. However, President Joe Biden and China's leader, Xi Jinping, won't be attending the conference.