US intel says Putin believes he is winning the Ukraine war and the West will give up on trying to isolate him, report says

• Putin believes he is winning the war in Ukraine, say US intel assessments cited by the NYT.
• He may also lash out at the West in unpredictable ways, one US intelligence official said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he is winning the war in Ukraine and that Western resolve to isolate him would crack over time, US intelligence assessments say, according to The New York Times.

Intelligence assessments delivered to the White House concluded that Putin was confident of the success of the military campaign despite multiple setbacks including economic isolation, a high number of Russian casualties, and Russian troops being driven back from Kyiv by Ukrainian forces, The Times reported, citing a senior US official.

Putin appeared bullish in a public statement on Monday, claiming that punishing sanctions by the West had failed to significantly impact the Russian economy. But the head of Russia's central bank contradicted Putin's assessment that same day, saying the full impact of the sanctions was yet to be felt.

According to the assessments, reported by The Times, Putin questions the long-term resolve of the West and believes that with the help of China, India, and other Asian economies, he can avoid full international isolation and the worst consequences of Western sanctions.

China and India, which have not sided with or against Russia in the Ukraine war, have continued trading with Russia, thereby softening the blow of Western sanctions.

Putin has also menaced the West with the potential use of force. On Wednesday, Russia tested its new intercontinental ballistic missile, dubbed "Satan 2," which Putin said would "provide food for thought to those who in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric try to threaten our country."

One senior US intelligence official told the Times that Putin's isolation may prompt him to lash out at the West in unpredictable ways.

"We have been so successful in disconnecting Putin from the global system that he has even more incentive to disrupt it beyond Ukraine," the official said. "And if he grows increasingly desperate, he may try things that don't seem rational."

Russia has in recent days refocused its campaign in a renewed assault in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

Kremlin insiders told Bloomberg in a Wednesday report that Putin was not listening from warnings about the political and economic cost of the conflict and regarded himself as being on an historic mission in waging war in Ukraine.