Ukraine's relentless targeting of the Black Sea Fleet has disrupted Russia's efforts to block a key export

• Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russia's Black Sea fleet in recent weeks.
• The tension comes two months after Russia pulled out of a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain.

A recent spate of destructive Ukrainian attacks on Russia's Black Sea Fleet may have as much to do with Ukraine's economic prospects as its military tactics.

Ukraine has managed to lay claim to parts of the disputed Black Sea after ramping up its assaults on Russia's naval fleet in recent weeks. The attacks have caused so much damage to Russian equipment and infrastructure in the occupied Crimean Peninsula that British intelligence said this week Moscow's fleet was probably losing the ability to defend itself.

The heightened activity in the Black Sea comes two months after Russia pulled out of an initiative brokered by the United Nations that allowed Ukraine to continue exporting tens of millions of tons of grain amid the war.

In July, Russia said it would end the guarantee of shipping safety in the northwestern Black Sea, sending additional vessels to patrol the area and firing warning shots at a freighter last month as part of increasingly tense efforts to block Ukraine's economic exports.

"The key to the current spate of attacks on the Black Sea Fleet is the grain — and wider exports — issue," Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy who's a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider.

Ukraine provides about 10% of the world's wheat exports and about half of its sunflower oil, earning it the nickname "Europe's breadbasket." The UN deal, which was brokered in July 2022, was an effort to avoid a catastrophic food shortage around the globe following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ukrainian grain exports for the month of September were down more than 50% from this time last year, data from the country's agriculture ministry indicated earlier this month, highlighting the necessity of access to the Black Sea ports for Ukraine's exports.

"If Ukraine can't get grain out, its budgetary woes are even more grave," Miles said.

In recent weeks, however, the country had established a new shipping corridor in the Black Sea that avoids Russia's port blockades, Ukraine's navy said this week. Seven cargo vessels had successfully sailed the new route already, the country said.

The New York Times cited analysts this week who said the new corridor's success might be thanks to Ukraine's newfound ability to target Russian warships and deter them from entering Ukrainian waters, as well as the country's efforts to hamstring Russia's intelligence operations in the Black Sea.

The new route ushers Ukrainian ships through an area protected by maritime mines along the country's shores, the outlet reported. Once the vessels depart Ukrainian waters, it added, they stick close to NATO-country coasts, such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, for extra protection.

The Times reported that Ukrainian forces had ramped up attacks on the Russian fleet in conjunction with the new corridor to deter Russia from blocking the route.

Ukraine's economic interest in the Black Sea is an added layer to the warfare in the region. Ukraine has long had reason to target Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which plays a key role in launching long-distance missile strikes.

Retaking Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, is a major aim for Ukrainian defense officials. Ukraine recently launched missile strikes on the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters in the city of Sevastopol.

"Of course, retaking Crimea is the ultimate end goal for Ukrainian leaders — they've been clear about this — but I think in the near term, they are trying to get the Russians to change their risk calculus when it comes to blockading access to Ukrainian ports and get them reopened," Miles said.