- Ukraine has long sought F-16s, believing the Western fighter jets would be a boon to their arsenal.
- Experts told Insider there are pros and cons to the Soviet-made MiG-29s and Su-27s Ukraine is flying now.
Ukraine wants desperately to add American-made F-16s to their arsenal of Soviet-made fighter jets, asserting that the Western fighter jets will be critical assets, even if they won't necessarily be silver bullets.
F-16s "would be a massive improvement on what the Ukrainian fighter pilots are flying today," Justin Bronk, a professor at the Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy and senior research fellow for airpower and technology in the military sciences team at Royal United Services Institute, told Insider, adding that the US-made fourth-generation jets would come with a huge global supply chain and upgradeable features that Kyiv's current jets don't have.
With recent movement on the matter from the US and its NATO allies, it's possible that Ukrainian pilots could start training on the jets in August and that F-16s could be on the ground in Ukraine by the end of the year, potentially helping challenge Russia's extensive air defense systems and providing support for ground operations.
Although there's no definitive timeline for when Ukraine might get the F-16s it has been asking for, their expected eventual delivery and employment in battle would likely be a boon for the Ukrainian air force.
Ukraine's current air force faces immense challenges
Ukraine is currently flying Soviet-made MiG-29 and Su-27 multirole fighters against a larger and technologically superior Russian air force.
The aircraft are underdogs compared to Russian fighter aircraft like the MiG-31s and Su-25s, which feature advanced radars that allow them to see and locate targets further away, among other higher-end capabilities. The MiG-31 in particular can track and engage multiple targets at once, and its fuel usage is more economical than the MiG-25 from which it evolved.
And Kyiv is also facing maintenance issues with its fighters.
"Going forward, maintaining them is going to get harder because they don't have access to factory parts manufactured in Russia," Brynn Tannehill, a defense expert and former US Navy pilot, told Insider, adding that Ukraine will increasingly have to either machine their own parts or get them from NATO allies with Soviet-era equipment.
That's not to say Ukraine's current aircraft don't also have their benefits. For one, Kyiv has experience operating these aircraft, but beyond that, a "MiG-29 is actually significantly better at doing improvised field operations" than a jet like the F-16, she said, noting the rugged landing gear and protective air intake on the Soviet aircraft.
Ukraine's been operating much of its air force from "remote locations, places that the Russians wouldn't expect," Tannehill added. F-16s would have trouble with that. "The F-16 were intended to operate off debris-free, very crystal smooth concrete runways. They were not designed to be on improvised fields or rough fields," she said.
But those advantages don't make up for the weaknesses the aircraft have in the face of Russian fighters and, importantly, Russian ground-based air defenses.
One of the biggest challenges for the Ukrainian air forces has been Russia's formidable air defenses, which have kept much of Kyiv's air force far from the front lines. The S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, for example, give Moscow capabilities to eliminate a variety of targets out to a range of up to almost 300 miles. On the other hand, the Ukrainian forces, armed with their own air defenses and Western systems, like US-made Patriots, have also been able to hamper Russian air operations, but greater combat capability is desired.
Ukraine has wanted F-16s since the early days of Russia's invasion
Ukraine has long argued that F-16s with better radars, weapons capabilities, speed, and range will help it combat Russian threats and that they'd also be useful for Kyiv's air force in the long-term, potentially deterring Russia from engaging it in a future conflict.
Back in May, US President Joe Biden announced support for training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, signaling plans for NATO to assist in the preparation and provision of fighter jets to Kyiv. US approval was initially a major roadblock, as concerns over Russian escalation have led the White House and Pentagon to at times hesitate on sending a variety of big-ticket items, such as the Abrams tank, to Ukraine.
It's not clear if F-16s, which have their limitations against some of Russia's more modern aircraft and defenses, would kelp Kyiv's forces achieve "air superiority," and much of their usefulness would come down to what weapons are supplied. But the Western jets have the potential to give Ukraine better control over its airspace than its current fleet of MiG-29s and Su-27s as F-16s could quickly cover ground to help troops push the current battle lines while also providing support and firepower for offensive movement.
F-16s are also more compatible with NATO system and weapons upgrades, Tannehill said. "Depending on what's supplied to Ukraine, it would allow the effective employment of a larger variety of NATO weapons systems."
For instance, as Bronk explained to Insider, "an F-16 would potentially be more capable with the AGM-88 high speed anti-radiation missile than the MiG-29 and Su-27, which have been adapted to carry them for the Ukrainian Air Force at the moment." The F-16 would allow Ukrainian pilots to better and more easily detect and destroy enemy radars with the AGM-88 HARM, whereas current Soviet fighters had to be irregularly modified to even carry it.
In addition to the AGM-88 missiles, other US weapons like the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) or Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), both of which can be carried by certain F-16 models could potentially deal damage to Russian air assets and ground forces.
F-16s will help, but they're not a silver bullet
But while there are advantages to the F-16, there are plenty of challenges to operating the jets. The logistical tail of the jets will be difficult, requiring a complete overhaul of where Ukraine gets parts from and how it conducts servicing and repairs. Pilots will need be trained on an entirely new system, something a US official told Reuters could take as little as four months with an experienced Ukrainian pilot but could potentially take significantly longer to fully master tactics and uses. It'll be expensive to operate F-16s, too.
"The flip side to this is that they're very expensive to operate relative to the Soviet-era aircraft Ukraine is used to" and "they would require, like any Western aircraft, a very different approach to maintenance servicing and general operations," Bronk said.
The jets will Westernize Ukraine's way of war, but it will likely require a long-term relationship between Kyiv and NATO allies afterwards. That relationship could involve combat exercises, training pilots, and upgrading the jets and systems.
"There will no doubt be a need for an ongoing support arrangement with European and US partners to allow Ukraine to afford to operate an F-16 fleet even once the fighting is done," Bronk said.