- A $61 billion package of
US military aid for Ukraine is being signed off. - The aid is set to provide much-needed support for Ukraine over the summer months.
"We thought that our partners had forgotten about us," a Ukrainian intelligence officer with the call sign Bankir told CNN.
The US House of Representatives approved the aid package, having been held up for months amid opposition from far-right Republicans. It's now set to be voted on by the US Senate, where it's widely expected to pass.
But while it's likely to help kill Russia's momentum and give Ukraine much-needed support in the coming months, experts are cautioning that it doesn't ensure victory for Ukraine.
A race against time
Mark Warner, the chair of theIt's a race against time for Ukraine. Its military is running low on ammunition and artillery supplies and struggling to fend off intensifying Russian attacks. Meanwhile, its air defense systems are short of missiles, meaning Russia is increasingly able to target Ukraine's cities and power plants.
In recent weeks, Ukraine's leaders have issued increasingly stark warnings that it faces the prospect of defeat to Russia without more money from its allies.
Analysts say the aid bill will bolster Ukraine's defenses against a possible planned Russian offensive this summer.
US-made missiles have been crucial to Ukraine in targeting Russian supply lines and troop gatherings, while artillery has been vital for defending its positions from attacks.
The aid would allow Ukraine to replenish its supplies of these vital weapons, which reports say it had to start rationing on the front line in recent weeks.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said Ukraine would "likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed US assistance arrives promptly."
One senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times the equipment would "help to slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it."
Ukraine's future remains uncertain
Experts have long believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to grind down Ukrainian resistance, exploiting the fact that long-term Western support for Ukraine remains uncertain."Please, don't forget that russian military budget is 100 bln dollars," Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, wrote on X on Saturday evening. "Today we won the time - not the war. We will need to finish the job."
George Beebe, a former head of the CIA's Russia-analysis unit, told BI recently that even with the huge injection of money, it was probably not enough to enable Ukraine to launch a campaign to drive Russian forces back.
And the long-term future of US aid remains in doubt, with Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, having repeatedly said he opposes funding Ukraine's war effort.
Ukraine's European allies haven't wavered in their commitment to helping Ukraine but have struggled to produce enough ammunition and equipment to make up for the US aid shortfall this year.
Many believe the best Ukraine can hope for is to use the money to reinforce its current position, continue to inflict losses on Russia, and hope that its allies keep the aid flowing next year.
"Such a large aid package may be the last this year. Moreover, there is a fairly high probability that all subsequent aid packages for Ukraine will be much smaller in size," a former Ukrainian officer who operates the Frontelligence Insight newsletter said, as cited by the Financial Times.
"The aid provided by the US buys us and the European Union time, about one year," the assessment said.
For Ukraine to feel confident in winning the war against Russia, it needs more military aid beyond 2024. There's currently no guarantee it will get it in sufficient amounts.
Correction: April 22, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the surname of the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. His name is Mark Warner, not Mark Warne. It also misquoted Oleksiy Goncharenko's X post.