- The major Arab Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar — are among the top buyers of US arms.
- But Washington has proved to be wary of selling those countries US-made stealth fighter jets.
Despite having tremendous wealth and a decadeslong record of buying advanced fighter jets from the US, none of the Arab Gulf states have acquired US-made fifth-generation stealth fighters.
If they cannot obtain the US-built F-35, they may seek other fifth-generation fighters or join one of the multinational efforts to develop one, but technical challenges and political hurdles may make their search for stealth jets a long one.
"When it comes to options for stealth fighters, the Gulf states face difficult choices as they look for exporters that don't care about their regimes and human rights and that don't have political interests that could put them in conflict," Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military-aviation journalist, told Insider.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar — the leading and wealthiest Arab Gulf states and three of the US's top 10 arms customers — have purchased many of the most advanced F-15 and F-16 variants over the past three decades, and each has requested to buy the F-35.
But Washington has only shown a willingness to sell them F-35s under certain conditions.
In January 2021, the UAE reached a landmark deal for 50 F-35s and 18 MQ-9 Reaper drones for an eye-watering $23 billion after establishing diplomatic relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords.
However, Abu Dhabi suspended talks the following December, citing what one Emirati official dubbed onerous conditions imposed to protect US technology against Chinese espionage. It's unclear whether negotiations are set to recommence any time soon.
Saudi Arabia has also requested various concessions from the US, including fewer restrictions on arms sales, in return for potentially establishing official ties with Israel. However, it's unclear whether the Saudis are seeking F-35s as part of this proposed arrangement.
It's doubtful the US would sell F-35s to either the Saudis or the Qataris if those countries didn't first join the Abraham Accords or a similar normalization initiative in the future. That leaves the Gulf states with various non-US options, which don't look promising — at least not any time soon.
On March 1, Saudi Arabia announced that it would participate in the UK-led Future Air Capabilities System program, which is developing a six-generation fighter aircraft called Tempest. Hours later, the UK issued a statement clarifying that its cooperation with Saudi Arabia was "distinct" from British multinational efforts to develop next-generation fighters.
"Stealth fighters are not all created equal, with the F-35 and likely the future Tempest and FCAS designed to a much higher standard of stealth than rivals," Roblin said. "For now, exports to the Gulf states are viewed as politically icky in the US, though perhaps the UAE has a more likely path to F-35s than Saudi Arabia."
While France may have fewer reservations, it is partnered with a "more scrupulous" Germany in a separate FCAS project, Roblin added.
"The British were earlier partnering with Turkey at one point and apparently were talking with the Saudis, so overall they seem less worried about political risks and reputations — though not so much that they didn't walk back that announcement," Roblin said.
In 2021, shortly after unveiling its Su-75 fighter, Russia offered to coproduce the jet, which is still in development, with the UAE. However, unconfirmed reports in late 2022 suggested the latter has suspended funding.
Unlike the US, Russia has never produced a full-fledged stealth fighter in bulk. While the Su-57 has entered service, Russia is struggling to build it in large numbers, and neither that jet nor the Su-75 are "top-tier," Roblin said.
"With restrictions on the import of microelectronics to Russia harming production, combined with the sanction regime, the political risks of supporting the Su-75 projects look pretty dire at the moment," Roblin said, adding that the UAE could "jump back in" if the war in Ukraine eases or Western sanctions are relaxed.
Either way, Abu Dhabi's participation in the Su-75 project wasn't necessarily about the aircraft. Its interest "has been more of a point of leverage between Abu Dhabi and Washington than it has been a real plan of the UAE's to outfit itself with the Russian jets," Emily Hawthorne, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst with the risk-intelligence company RANE, told Insider.
"Abu Dhabi also has a handful of plastics and advanced-materials companies building out aircraft components, and they are eager to establish more long-term contracts for aircraft like the Su-75," Hawthorne added.
The Gulf states may search elsewhere for an in-development next-generation fighter and seek a coproduction arrangement to obtain the finished product. Roblin and Hawthorne said they might turn to South Korea for its stealthy KF-21 Boramae.
"Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the other Gulf Cooperation Council states are indeed increasingly interested in South Korean military technology," Hawthorne said, noting that Seoul was the "ideal partner" for those states as they try to balance their deepening strategic ties with Russia and their valuable strategic relations with the US.
"South Korea is a US partner with technical know-how the GCC states respect and more moderate price points they welcome," Hawthorne said.
Other aspects of the KF-21 program could hinder such a sale. "Seoul will sell to anyone, but components of it are sourced from West, which might complicate that," Roblin said.
The KF-21 also isn't considered truly "stealth" as its weapons are externally mounted, Roblin said, adding: "Maybe later, it will transition to a true stealth design."
There are very few other viable options.
While China may eventually offer its FC-31/J-35 stealth fighter for export, it must first demonstrate the jet's effectiveness to attract serious buyers.
Roblin said the Gulf states might eventually invest in Turkey's nascent TF Kaan. He said it was similar to the KF-21 and wasn't likely to produce an aircraft "at the level of an F-35" but would come with fewer limitations and "human-rights reservations."
Hawthorne said Gulf states still ultimately wanted the F-35, which he said remained "the absolute cream of the crop."
But the US will remain wary of offering a fifth-generation fighter to those countries while they "maintain strategic neutrality between the US and Russia, and while Israeli normalization is still incomplete across the region," Hawthorne said.
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.