The US is quietly arming Taiwan against a Chinese invasion — but it could backfire

• The US in August granted Taiwan $80 million to fund its military.
• It comes amid escalating aggression from China.

In late August, the US approved an $80 million military grant to arm Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion.

The grant was just the first installment of a US military funding program for Taiwan that could soon total $500 million, Bloomberg reported.

It was the first time the US used taxpayer money to provide military support for Taiwan in the form of a grant, in a sign of America's concerns over increasing Chinese aggression in the region.

But the funding could backfire. The Biden administration is treading a precarious balance between not aggravating China's nationalist president Xi Jinping, and providing Taiwan with the weapons it needs to potentially fend off China's vast military, analysts told Insider.

As one longtime China watcher told BBC News: "We need to keep quiet on the whole issue of strategic ambiguity while arming Taiwan to the teeth."

Biden's tough response to China

Taiwan's independence has been a decades-long grievance for China's Communist rulers. The island declared its independence from the mainland in 1949 when nationalist rebels fled there after the Communists won the civil war.

But with China growing increasingly wealthy, powerful, and assertive on the world stage, Xi has placed seizing back control of Taiwan toward the top of his priority list.

China regularly showcases its power with military exercises off Taiwan's coast, while its leaders have stepped up their threats against Taiwanese independence in speeches.

China responded furiously to the August aid transfer, accusing the US of harming "China's sovereignty and security interests" and undermining "peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," CNN reported.

For decades, the US has pursued a policy of "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan, refusing to explicitly say if it would come to Taiwan's aid if it was invaded yet positioning itself as the most adamant ally of the country.

It's part of a plan to wrong-step China's leaders and make them uncertain about how exactly the US would respond to Chinese attacks on Taiwan.

But the Biden administration has come very close to abandoning that policy, and explicitly affirming that it would help to defend Taiwan as China steps up its threats.

US President Joe Biden has said several times that the US would come to Taiwan's defense. And though the comments were later rowed back by the White House, it seems likely that the administration at the very least is signaling a tough stance toward potential Chinese aggression. Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Insider there had been a shift in Washington, DC, towards increased hawkishness over Taiwan: "The mood in Congress is more overtly supportive of Taiwan than only a few years ago."

Naiyu Kuo, a Eurasia Group analyst focused on Taiwan, said that the $80 million grant was one of a series of massive military aid packages the US has given Taiwan, which "breaks precedent in an effort to build Taiwan's asymmetric defense capabilities."

"Those military packages are the Biden administration's efforts to build Taiwan's defense capabilities at a faster pace to match PLA [Chinese military] modernization efforts," said Kuo.

But some experts warn that instead of deterring Chinese aggression, increasingly emphatic US statements and gestures in support of Taiwan's independence could instead accidentally provoke it.

"The essence of the security dilemma in international affairs is that one side's efforts to bolster defense and deterrence can appear threatening and aggressive to the other side, leading to an escalatory spiral," Thompson, the Eurasia Group analyst, said.

Provoking China

Since the 1970s, the US has had a delicate diplomatic relationship with China, acknowledging the "One China" policy under which China claims ownership of Taiwan, yet also backing Taiwanese autonomy.

If it formally recognizes Taiwan's status as an independent nation, this could upset the balance, and China could see no choice but to aggressively assert itself, say some analysts.

"To abandon it now in favor of an unambiguous commitment to defend Taiwan would quite probably be seen in Beijing as a decisive US step towards abandoning 'One China' and recognizing Taiwan as an independent country," Hugh White, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, recently wrote in The Interpreter.

"That could easily provoke exactly the Chinese attack on Taiwan that US policy aims to deter," he wrote.

Beijing's leaders have long believed that the US was using the issue of Taiwan's security as part of a plot to encircle China, so are extremely wary of any sign that Washington is boosting support.

"Beijing believes the US is 'hollowing out' its long-standing one-China policy and seeks to use the Taiwan issue in a broader strategy to contain China. Beijing considered its rhetoric and actions toward Taiwan as largely 'defensive,' and the US is the one exploiting the Taiwan issue and changing the status quo," said Kuo, of the Eurasia Group.

Kavanagh of the CEIP said that escalating military support could itself be misinterpreted, and provoke an aggressive response from China.

The $80 million transfer was sent under a mechanism meant for funds for sovereign states, so could potentially be interpreted by China as an affront by the US and a breach of long-standing policies under which the US does not formally recognize Taiwan's independence.

Kavanagh said that it was unlikely that the Biden administration was seeking to send a political message to China with the grant, but simply divert funds quickly.

"The administration is searching for ways to send more arms to Taiwan more quickly and exploiting all avenues available. Still, it may not matter, because this is undoubtedly how China will see the move."

"I think the risk of provocation is a real one that policymakers should consider carefully. Beijing protests all US arms sales to Taiwan, but certain types of assistance are more likely to provoke China than others," added Kavanagh, pointing in particular to sales of weapons like long-range missiles, or an increase in the number of US military trainers on the island.

In the high-stakes stand-off over Taiwan's future, US actions could have unintended consequences. And it's a possibility US officials recognize as they seek to deter Chinese aggression without provoking a wider war.

Correction note: Correction: June 17, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the name of Eurasia Group analyst Graeme Thompson.