- The Kremlin is trying to convince Russians to accept Ukraine's Kursk incursion, per Meduza.
- Sources said it wants to hold off on retaking the region until after a victory in eastern Ukraine.
The Kremlin is trying to indoctrinate Russians into accepting Ukraine's military presence in the Kursk region as the "new normal," according to a report.
Unnamed Russian government sources close to the Russian Presidential Administration told independent Russian outlet Meduza that the Kremlin is exploiting propaganda to persuade Russians to hold off on retaking the Kursk region until after an "inevitable" Ukrainian defeat in eastern Ukraine, per a translation by the Institute for the Study of War.
Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive into Russia's Kursk region on August 6, catching Russian forces off guard and grabbing around 386 miles of territory in a matter of days.
Ukraine's army chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Tuesday that Ukrainian forces were 22 miles into Russia's Kursk region.
Russia has struggled to respond quickly and effectively to the attack, in part due to its complex military structures and a lack of contingency plans.
Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal reported that a Russian general disbanded a group charged with protecting Kursk's borders months before Ukraine's surprise incursion, citing an unnamed official in Russia's security services, leaving the border region vulnerable.
To minimize the significance of Ukraine's incursion — now in its third week — the Kremlin may be trying to weaponize Russian state media's coverage of its monthslong offensive in eastern Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
TV stations are busy portraying Russia's advances around the Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk as huge victories while actively contrasting Ukraine's incursion in Kursk as a limited operation, it said.
This could be a way for the Kremlin to buy itself some time and space before reacting to Ukraine's incursion, it added.
In an update on Sunday, the ISW said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia's military command are likely prioritizing their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine because they see it as a strategic priority to win the war of attrition against Ukraine.
But in the past two weeks, Ukraine says its forces in Kursk have captured as much territory as Russia has this year, destroyed at least two bridges, and are consolidating their grasp over the area.
While the incursion appears to be advancing, it could easily backfire on Ukraine.
A Ukrainian commander told the Financial Times this week that Russian soldiers were making advances in eastern Ukraine in part due to ammunition being redirected for military operations in Kursk, forcing his soldiers to ration shells.
But the main risk facing Ukraine right now is manpower, according to Matthew Savill, military sciences director at the Royal United Services Institute.
If Ukrainian forces try to hold Kursk in the long term, they will extend the front line of the fight, he told Business Insider on Tuesday.
"This raises the stakes and may result in them committing beyond a sustainable position," he said.