The GOP could be about to cost Ukraine the war

• House Republicans look set to stall a Senate-approved $60 billion aid deal for Ukraine.
• It could cost Ukraine the war and embolden Russia to severely weaken the US and NATO, analysts said.

The House GOP's refusal to take up a massive aid deal to Ukraine starves its embattled military of the firepower it needs to defend itself from Russian attacks and, over a longer period, could cost Ukraine the war, according to military analysts.

The Senate passed a $95 billion aid bill for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan on Tuesday, paving the way for a possible vote in the House of Representatives.

But House Republicans under Speaker Mike Johnson have no plans to take up the deal, effectively blocking the $60 billion in Ukraine aid it includes.

The US has been Ukraine's largest supplier of military aid by a vast margin, and has provided systems like Patriot missile batteries and howitzers crucial to the war effort.

The war has reached a stalemate even with this support, and a sudden shortage as could come this year drastically weakens Ukraine’s war effort against Russia, analysts told Business Insider.

"If American aid disappears, the prospects of a Kremlin victory go way up," John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told Business Insider.

Herbst served for over 30 years as a foreign service officer and was US ambassador to Ukraine between 2003 and 2006. Without US aid to sustain the war effort, he said, Ukraine’s chances of holding out the front lines will dwindle dramatically.

Ukrainian soldiers are already struggling with shortages of personnel and ammunition.

It's running low on ammunition and artillery shells, forcing troops to ration their use, scale back operations, and intensify their use of drones. Russia is outfiring Ukrainian artillery by a factor of at least five.

Dwindling ammunition stocks have also limited the involvement of US and Western-provided tanks.

For both sides, the war is consuming ammunition non-stop. Even Russia, with a vastly bigger defense industry than Ukraine, has had to get weapons from other countries like Iran and North Korea.

Without US arms support, Ukraine will simply be outgunned and more of its troops will die, experts warn.

Dalibor Rohac, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a researcher at the Martens Center think tank, made a similar assessment, pointing to Ukraine's ammunition and artillery shortages.

"If the status quo continues, it would be difficult to imagine Ukraine would build up the resources needed to take initiative on the battlefield," he told BI.

Other aid will save Ukraine just for months

A Ukrainian defeat would not be immediate, as Europe could step up its military aid, Herbst said.

While Republicans continue to block aid in Congress, the EU agreed earlier this month on a $54 billion support package for Ukraine.

With that level of assistance and enough sophisticated weapons, it is "conceivable" that Ukraine could hold back Russian advances or breakthroughs along the front lines for a matter of months, Herbst said.

"But if we're talking about this same situation 18 months from now and European support begins to slip, you could begin to see major, major Russian gains," he said.

And then "things would be very grim indeed," he said.

Gustav Gressel, a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, was less optimistic, saying EU aid can't make up for losses in US aid as its production rates are far below Ukraine's needs.

"Counter-battery fire will fall short, allowing Russia undisturbed fire support in attacks" by spring or the summer, he told BI.

A withering rate of artillery fire could force Ukrainian troops to retreat from trench lines and fortified positions, which happened earlier in the war.

Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, however, noted that Ukraine would still benefit from previous US commitments to aid deliveries.

But they'd continue at declining levels, he said.

"US aid delivered in February is about 25% of what it was at its height last summer. This will continue to decline," he told BI, reaching about 8% by this summer.

While Europe and global aid will continue, he said it is unlikely to be enough on its own.

At some point, Cancian said, Russia would achieve a major breakthrough.

Losing Ukraine would come at a devastating cost for NATO and the US

These dynamics are perilous for Ukraine and its backers. It could lose the vast swathes of territory Russia has already seized and become a frozen conflict, or even collapse into a vassal state as Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought. This brings Russia closer to NATO countries.

The Institute for the Study of War warned of that possibility in December in a wide-ranging report titled "The High Price of Losing Ukraine."

Russia would pose the "worst threat" to the US since the fall of the Soviet Union, the report said.

A successful Russia would likely emerge regenerated, more determined to weaken the US, and more assured that it can achieve its aims, the ISW report said.

If Russia wins and gains control of all of Ukraine, it will rebuild its large-scale warfighting capacity, absorb Belarus and Ukraine, and try to regain control over other surrounding nations, the report said.

It would also increase its military might and influence throughout the Arctic, Africa, and the Balkans, and may ultimately try to break NATO, it added.

In that scenario, Herbst said the US would do everything in its power to protect NATO and would need to spend a "great deal" more time and resources deterring Russia in Europe.

Given the Pentagon's overall defense budget — around $800 billion — Herbst said that what the US has spent on Ukraine over the last two years has been marginal; the US has provided Ukraine with $44 billion in military aid.

"What does that represent as a percentage of our defense budget? 4%," he said. "And what percentage of Moscow's conventional military capability have we destroyed? We're hearing 50%. Not a bad use of 4% of our defense budget, right?"

Herbst holds the same view of the current aid bill and its potential value in combating Russia.

While Johnson has threatened to reject the bill, there is still a path forward.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) hinted in a statement last week that Democrats would try to drive the bill to the floor via a discharge petition.

House Democrats could rally enough support from House Republicans to reach the 218 signatures required to discharge the bill and bring it to the floor.

But if that fails, it will trigger a "world's historic catastrophe," Herbst said, pointing to the impact it would have on NATO.

"The danger is that the single greatest organization promoting global stability will be undermined by America abandoning Ukraine," he said.