- Russia has been ramping up its drone strikes across Ukraine.
- Experts say this is to try to look like its constraining Ukraine, ahead of a counteroffensive.
Russia has escalated its drone strikes across Ukraine in recent weeks, as it prepares for an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. But its efforts don't appear to be having much of an impact on the ground, experts said.
In fact, those efforts may have a more propagandist purpose, which is to try to make it look like Russian forces are successfully hampering Ukraine's actions, even if they are not, Washington DC-based think tank Institute for the Study of War said in an update on Sunday.
The ISW reiterated an assessment from earlier this month, saying that Russia was likely conducting almost-daily missile strikes "in order to portray themselves as constraining potential upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive operations."
But "the diminished effectiveness of the strikes is likely not significantly constraining Ukrainian actions."
The earlier assessment added that Russian forces were "more focused on sustaining a regular series of missile strikes than the actual effectiveness of the strikes."
It's not clear exactly when the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive will start, but Ukraine's deputy defense minister said that when it does "Russia will be in panic."
Russian air strikes aren't entirely for show, however.
Air strikes have been escalating in recent weeks. The ISW said that Russian forces have conducted at least 10 different sets of strikes since April 19, hitting targets far from the front lines, including in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital.
The think tank said that the drone and missile strikes are likely also part of a new Russian effort aimed at "degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term."
The new Russian air campaign appears to be focused on Kyiv and potential Ukrainian military industrial and logistics facilities, it said.
However, it added that Russian forces have used significantly fewer high-precision missiles in these latest strikes, in comparison to earlier campaigns against Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
Instead, it has relied heavily on launching large numbers of Iranian-made Shahed drones to try to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
This is because it likely used up a significant amount of its advanced missiles during those earlier campaigns, and is now trying to "conserve the limited remaining stocks," the ISW said.
Meanwhile, it added, Ukrainian forces "have been more effective in shooting down Russian precision systems."