Russia’s army is so ineffective it will probably not be able to take much territory in Ukraine for ‘the next several months’, UK intel says

• The UK MOD said Russia looked unlikely to make any big gains in Ukraine for months.
• It's highly unlikely that Russia can generate an effective striking force in the coming months, it said.

The UK Ministry of Defence predicted on Monday that Russian forces will not see any big gains over the winter, even as Ukraine said its own attacks would ramp up as the ground freezes.

The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update on Monday that "Russian ground forces are unlikely to make operationally significant advances within the next several months."

It added that Russia is likely still aiming to extend control over all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, with Russian military planners likely aiming to prioritise advancing deeper into Donetsk Oblast.

However, "Russia's strategy is currently unlikely to achieve its objectives: it is highly unlikely that the Russian military is currently able to generate an effective striking force capable of retaking these areas," it said.

Russia never completely controlled all of the four regions, despite announcing their annexation in September, and Ukrainian forces have subsequently pushed back Russian troops across vast swathes of territory.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has said that its own greater offensive efforts would start again soon.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Sunday that the weather turning freezing would make Ukraine's operations easier by hardening the ground.

He said Ukraine's army will resume "active counteroffensive actions" when the ground freezes and "becomes firmer for easier passage of equipment," CNN reported.

"The weather conditions, the transition from a dry autumn to a not-yet-freezing winter ... we encountered rain and very difficult conditions for attacks from either side."

"Therefore, we are taking advantage of the moment when the ground becomes firmer," Reznikov said, according to CNN.

Fighting in Ukraine has slowed after months of heightened action, following Ukraine's counteroffensive, launched in August.

On December 3, Avril Haines, the US National Intelligence Director, said that winter conditions are expected to slow the war, and that there was already a "reduced tempo."

NATO's head said earlier this month that Russia may want the fighting to slow, seeking a "freeze" in the fighting so it can better prepare for a bigger assault next year.

"What we see now is Russia is actually trying to have some kind of 'freeze' of this war at least for a short period of time so they can regroup, repair, recover," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

"And then try to launch a bigger offensive next spring."