Russia's air force 'remains largely intact,' but more jets won't fix all its problems in Ukraine, NATO commanders say

• After 16 months of fighting, most of Russia's air force remains intact.
• Despite its numerical advantage, Russia can't control the skies over Ukraine, but neither can Kyiv.

After 16 months of fighting in Ukraine, Russia's military still has nearly all of its combat aircraft, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian aircraft can control the air, the Royal Air Force's top general said Thursday.

Jets and helicopters have not disappeared from over Ukraine, but thickets of air-defense systems make the airspace inhospitable. And even though Russia has a vastly larger air force, other issues may keep it from operating effectively, according to two NATO air commanders.

In a speech at the Global Air & Space Chiefs' Conference in London on Thursday, Air Chief Marshal Rich Knighton, chief of the British air staff, said Russia's land force is now "weaker," having lost more than two-thirds of its tanks, "but the air force remains largely intact."

Knighton displayed graphics depicting both side's losses, based on assessments by British Defence Intelligence and open-source tracking website Oryx. One graphic said Russia has taken over 220,000 casualties, including 176 military pilots, and lost 162 air-defense systems. A second graphic said Russia's air force retains 96% of its 2,021 fixed-wing aircraft and 90% of its 899 helicopters, with losses of 86 planes and 90 helicopters.

The second graphic noted heavier losses for Ukraine's air force: 68 fixed-wing aircraft, leaving 78% of its 314-plane fleet, and 31 helicopters, or 48% of its 59 helicopters. Ukraine now has 15 combat aircraft for every 100 that Russia has, the graphic said.

Those numbers differ slightly from previous estimates. A US intelligence document leaked online this spring listed Russian losses at 72 fighter jets and fighter-bombers and 81 helicopters and Ukrainian losses at 60 fighters and fighter-bombers and 32 helicopters.

The leaked document noted that officials had "low confidence" in attrition estimates due to "information gaps," operational security and information operations, and bias in information shared by Ukraine.

Knighton said neither Russia nor Ukraine have been able to gain air superiority, "but the advantage is with defense" and the force on offense "faces a massive challenge without air superiority and without being able to strike the adversary in the deep."

That echoes comments of numerous US and NATO officials, who have said that effective air-defense networks on both sides prevent both Ukraine and Russia from achieving air superiority and launching effective air attacks on front line or rear-area targets.

Had Russia's air force been able to control the skies when it attacked in February 2022, "it probably would have been a three- or a 10-day war," Gen. James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe and of NATO's Allied Air Command, said on a June 29 episode of the War on the Rocks podcast.

"All the equipment that the 45 nations have offered Ukraine and trucked in would never have gotten there if Russia had air superiority," Hecker said. "They would have had close air support aircraft right on the border of Poland and Romania, over the lines of communications, and as soon as it crossed the border it would have been done."

Both sides have effective air-defense networks that are countering the other's operations, added Hecker, who said in March that Ukraine had lost more than 60 aircraft and Russia more than 70.

Ukraine now has "a very, very sophisticated, robust, resilient, integrated air- and missile-defense system, as does Russia, so what you're seeing is Russia can't fly their airplanes deep into Ukraine, because they get shot down," Hecker said. "Likewise, Ukraine can't fly theirs into Russia because of that same reason."

Aircraft from both sides are still active, however. Airstrikes were part of Ukraine's preparation for the counteroffensive it launched in June. While Russia's air force hasn't brought most of its airpower to bear, its aircraft continue to strike Ukrainian positions and there are signs it is tinkering with new ways to employ them, though often from the safety of Russian-held territory.

"We've been seeing them do experimentations with different types of rockets that they're able to launch from slightly farther back on their side," Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the Rand Corporation think tank, said on a podcast in April, referring to Russian aviation activity near Bakhmut and Kherson.

Massicot and others say Russia's air force could still exploit its numerical advantage if Ukraine's air-defenses network falters, though other factors could inhibit Russian air operations going forward. Its losses have likely taken a heavy toll on its relatively small cadre of skilled pilots, and Western sanctions could limit its ability to repair and build jets.

Hecker and his deputy, British Air Marshal Johnny Stringer, also said that despite some recent improvements, issues with training, targeting, and decision-making would likely impede the Russian air force's performance.

"The Russians have recapitalized a fair amount of their tactical air force, and they've done a lot on the weapons front as well. But if you don't address all the lines of development," Stringer said on the War on the Rocks podcast, "stand by to have some flashy things that are not capable in the way that perhaps you expected when you were writing the check."

Russian strikes on front-line targets still mostly consist of missiles, bombs, and rockets being "lobbed in" with "very, very little accuracy," Stringer said. "That is not the hallmark of a top-tier air force, and to be honest, although we are probably seeing some improvements — and I don't really want to get too drawn on that — they have a long way to go."