Russia will have to scale back front lines assaults in 6 weeks due to losses, Ukrainian commander says

• Russia will have to scale back front-line assaults in a month and a half, per a Ukrainian commander.
• General Oleksandr Pivnenko told Ukrinform that Russia's offensive capabilities are "not unlimited."

Russia will have to scale back its front lines assaults in a month and a half due to battlefield losses, according to a Ukrainian commander.

General Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of Ukraine's National Guard, made the assessment to Ukrinform on Thursday.

"In another month and a half, they will not be able to conduct active assaults in many directions at once and will switch to defense," he told the outlet, according to a translation by the Kyiv Independent.

Pivnenko cited Russian force's "not unlimited" offensive capabilities and the losses they are suffering on the front lines.

Russia has suffered mounting deaths since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022, in part due to it using waves of troops in head-on "meat assault" attacks.

The UK's Ministry of Defence reported in March that Russia averaged nearly 1,000 casualties a day in February, which included both killed and wounded soldiers, likely due to Russia's attritional approach to the fighting.

Last year, independent Russian outlets Important Stories and the Conflict Intelligence Team estimated that life expectancy on the battlefield for Russian soldiers was about four and a half months.

On Monday, the UK MOD said that Russia's casualty rate reached a high of more than 1,000 losses a day on average in May and June, with that number likely to stay above 1,000 over the next two months as Russia continues to try to overrun Ukrainian positions using large numbers of troops.

Despite mounting losses, Russia has been able to reconstitute its manpower and capabilities, according to senior military officials.

Martin Herem, the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, told Bloomberg in January that NATO has significantly underestimated Russia's capacity to replenish its armed forces with personnel and ammunition.

And during a talk hosted by the Center for a New American Security in April, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Russia has "almost completely" reformed its military capabilities after taking heavy losses in Ukraine.

Pivnenko also said that Russia will replenish its troops, so Ukraine needs to prepare its own reserves and armament.

He told Ukrinform that this involves developing training centers, and procuring weapons, military equipment, drones, armored vehicles, air defense systems, man-portable air defense systems, and ammunition.

If Ukraine plans "one step ahead of Russia, then everything will be fine," he said.