Russia will emerge from the Ukraine war a 'shattered military power,' top Pentagon official says

• Russia will emerge from war in Ukraine a "shattered military power," a senior Pentagon official said.
• Colin Kahl told lawmakers that Russia lost the war — echoing a similar remark by the top US general.

Russia will emerge from its war in Ukraine a "shattered military power," a senior Pentagon official said on Tuesday, stressing that the country has yet to achieve any of its goals and is expected to continue to struggle on the battlefield.

Colin Kahl, the under secretary of defense for policy, told US lawmakers that the situation looked "dire and pessimistic" for Ukraine when Russian forces first invaded in late February 2022, but after a year of fighting, it has become clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin has "lost" the war.

"While I don't know how the war is going to end, I think we already know one conclusion for sure, which is that Russia has lost," Kahl said during a House Armed Services Committee session on oversight of US military aid to Ukraine. "They intended to take over all of Ukraine — that didn't happen, it's not going to happen. They intended to divide NATO — NATO is stronger."

"They intended for Russia to emerge out of this war a great power in a multi-polar world — they will emerge from this conflict a shattered military power," he added.

Ukraine's successes against Russia have been fueled in part by security assistance from the US and other international partners, including the provision of essential lethal aid. Kahl told lawmakers that US military support for Kyiv has been flexible over the course of the war and that the security assistance provided by Washington has changed as the battlefield dynamic shifts.

During the early weeks of the war, as Ukraine was defending Kyiv, the US focused on providing weaponry like shoulder-launched anti-tank Javelin missiles and loitering munitions. As the campaign pivoted to Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, the weaponry became more long-range in nature — like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). In recent months, the US focused on advanced air defense batteries like the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS). And as Ukraine looks to regain battlefield momentum, the US is, along with other partners, providing tanks.

Kahl said the strategy to assess what weaponry is best for the US to send to Ukraine is working and would continue in accordance with what Kyiv needs.

"It is incumbent upon all of us to think about what Ukraine needs over the medium term to make sure they can defend whatever territory they claw back from the Russians and deter the Russians from going at it again when, and if, there's a halting to the fighting or a peace settlement — or even if there isn't," he said.

In November 2022, Kahl noted that Russia had likely lost half of its main battle tanks on the battlefield in Ukraine, arguing then that it will "emerge from this war weaker than it went in." His remarks in November, and again on Tuesday, echo what other top US officials and generals have said in stating that Russia has already lost and failed in Ukraine.

After a year of brutal fighting, Ukraine's military is facing a pivotal moment. It's forces must absorb Russian attacks and hold on long enough for the arrival of much-anticipated and advanced Western armor and heavy weaponry.