- Ukraine said it struck two hugely valuable Russian aircraft over the weekend.
- The planes seemed to go unusually close to the fighting, enabling Ukraine to hit them, one expert said.
Russia's loss of two valuable aircraft will unnerve its air force and make it even more conservative, an expert told Business Insider.
Ukraine said it damaged two Russian command aircraft — a Russian A-50 radar early-warning plane and Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command post — on Sunday, hitting the planes with its air defense systems.
According to Rajan Manon, a Russia and Ukraine expert and a director of the US-based Defense Priorities think tank, the aircraft appeared to get unusually close to the front lines.
He said that their fate will make Russia even more wary about how it uses the ones that remain.
"It's going to certainly make them more jittery," Manon told BI. "They're going to be much more careful in how and where they use them. No question."
Gustav Gressel, a missile defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Russia's thinking will be that "once Ukraine shoots such a high-value asset so far away from the front, you will not risk another one."
He said it could already be observed that Russia was directing A-50s further from the line of control.
The UK Ministry of Defence said on Wednesday that Russia will likely "now be forced to reconsider limiting the operational areas of its aircraft."
Russia only has a few of each plane: it was estimated to have eight A-50s and 30 Il-22s before this latest attack.
The latest losses come after Ukraine downed five Russian jets in December. Considering those losses together, Manon said: "For the Russian Air Force, it's kind of embarrassing."
"You have these two episodes in rapid succession: you lose five fighter jets, and now you lose two of these aircraft," he added.
Russia had already lost one of each plane since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Last year, an Ilyushin Il-22M was shot down by the Russian mercenary Wagner Group during its short-lived rebellion, and opposition activists in Belarus claimed to have destroyed a Russian A-50 near Minsk.
Given the limited supply, the latest developments are "a pretty big loss" for Russia, Manon said, adding that these aircraft are a key resource for Russia.
Russia's A-50s can act as a mobile command-and-control center to direct air strikes and attacks, and are able to locate enemy planes at long distances.
A-50s reportedly cost more than $300 million each.
The Ilyushin Il-22 is a special-mission aircraft used for airborne command and control.
The Il-22 "surveys the battlefield, picks up information, scoops it up, and relays it to distant commanders," Manon said. "This is significant because the Russian system, unlike NATO militaries, is very centralized. So directives are given from on high to units operating on the battlefield."
Russia has typically kept its aircraft far from the fighting in Ukraine, fearing shootdowns.
A Ukrainian Air Force spokesman bragged that Russia paid the price for going too close to the fighting.
Why these aircraft were so close to the front is unclear — they may have been trying to escape jamming or had some other strategic reason.
Regardless, Manon said the successful attack was "hugely impressive."
Ukraine has not said what equipment it used, and another theory is that Russia's own weaponry actually destroyed the planes.
Russia has not confirmed the losses, though some pro-war Russian bloggers have said the planes were destroyed.
Manon described the latest news as a "big psychological boost" for Ukraine, particularly as ongoing aid from its allies could be in doubt.
Ukraine says it needs more air defense equipment, with Russia trying to erode Ukraine's stockpiles to clear the way for unobstructed attacks.