Russia made a flashy upgrade to its cruise missiles since Ukraine shot down so many — but it likely won't help
- Russia appears to have put decoy flares on its cruise missiles, a world first.
- The flares are meant to confuse Ukraine's air defense and make them harder to shoot down.
Russia appears to be putting decoy flares on its cruise missiles to reduce how often Ukraine successfully shoots them down.
But experts told Business Insider the move may not have much of an effect beyond looking cool.
A video at the end of December appeared to show a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile using decoy flares during an attack.
A Ukrainian soldier said he saw one in January too.
The flares work by emitting heat, which air-defense systems use for targeting.
The idea is that the weapons will get confused and shoot the flares instead of the missile.
Ballistic missiles, which are typically faster than cruise missiles and can have larger warheads, have used such flares in the past.
But Timothy Wright, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said it was a first for cruise missiles.
Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology expert at Norway's University of Oslo, agreed, citing visual evidence from the wreckage of a recently-fired Kh-101.
Hoffmann, though, doubted it would give Russia much of an advantage. "It's probably not that effective," he said.
Russia is trying to stop losing missiles
Russia has been firing vast numbers of cruise missiles across Ukraine during its invasion.
They can have devastating effects: killing civilians, destroying homes and buildings, and knocking out power.
But many — perhaps most — are shot down by Ukraine's air-defense systems.
Ukraine said it intercepted 36 of Russia's 43 cruise missiles in one September attack. The Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine intercepted 149 of a reported 166 Russian cruise missiles between December 29 and January 4.
Wright said that "the Ukrainians have been quite successful in shooting Kh- 101s."
For Russia, he said, "increasing the survivability of the system is something that they'll be interested in."
The missiles' success rate, Hoffmann said, "has been quite low," and the decoy flares are likely an effort to increase their survivability.
But both were skeptical it would make a major difference for Russia.
"It might mean the Ukrainians might have to expend a little bit more munition, but whether it means that it being a silver bullet and making sure that the missile gets through, probably not," Wright said.
Still easy to shoot down
It is not clear exactly how Russia added the flares, the experts said.
The setup could dictate their success. If the flares activate in response to incoming fire, that would likely be better than if they were primed to automatically activate at a specified time.
William Alberque, who runs the arms control program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and Hoffmann said Russia likely used the simpler and worse option.
Ukraine's more advanced systems would also not be fooled by the flares, they said.
Most systems can distinguish between the shape of the missile and the flare, and won't be tricked just by heat, Alberque said.
Hoffmann said this tallies with comments by the Ukrainian soldiers, who said the flares would interfere with shoulder-launched Stinger missiles.
"Against very, very basic Stingers, this might be an effective countermeasure. Against anything that is somewhat more advanced? Absolutely not," Hoffmann said.
There is no confirmed breakdown of exactly what air-defense systems Ukraine has.
It has some of the world's most advanced systems, like the US-made Patriot, alongside much more basic equipment.
Russia's real advantage is that Ukraine has too little air defense overall, making it vulnerable to massed attacks, Hoffmann said.
That raises the question of why Russia would bother with the flares at all, he said.
He said it's possible the advantage is basically cosmetic — a "signal to themselves that they're trying to actively improve the success rate and survivability of their missiles."