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Russia is likely rethinking its air defenses, UK intel says, after a string of embarrassing strikes deep within its territory

Aug 31, 2023, 17:54 IST
Business Insider
A Tu-22M3 bomber performs during an aviation contest in Russia.Maxim Shemetov/REUTERS
  • Drone attacks on airfields in Russia are likely forcing it to reshape its air defense, UK intel said.
  • Russia has seen 25 attacks in August alone, with one destroying a prized bomber.
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Russia will likely have to enhance air defenses around its airfields after a spate of drone attacks on exposed Russian planes, according to a UK intelligence assessment.

Airfields and other locations deep within Russian territory have been pummeled in multiple strikes by exploding drone attacks in recent weeks — with one flurry, on the night of August 29, striking five separate locations.

The UK's Ministry of Defence called it "the largest attack on Russia since the start of the conflict."

As Insider's Sinéad Baker reported on Wednesday, the attacks showed serious flaws in Russia's defenses, and sparked embarrassment and recrimination from hardliners within the country.

Russia has one of the most sophisticated air and missile defense systems in the world, according to the Center for Strategic and International studies. But it doesn't seem to be helping much.

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In August alone 25 places in Russia came under drone attack, the UK MOD said, even penetrating the defenses around Moscow.

"Russia will have to consider the addition of further air defence systems to airfields that it considers to be at risk from UAV attacks," the UK MoD said.

Russia has blamed the attacks on Ukraine, which generally doesn't claim responsibility for attacks on Russian soil. But it is the obvious candidate, and officials have dropped hints seeming to acknowledge the hits as theirs.

Russia had already redeployed its aircraft to disperse them more widely and make them less vulnerable, the UK update said.

But even that tactic has its limits when drones have struck as deep into Russia as places like Soltsy-2, the update noted. That strike destroyed a prized Tupolev Tu-22 bomber, 400 miles from the border with Ukraine.

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As Baker wrote in her article, the strikes suggest two equally bad circumstances for Russia: Either Ukraine is successfully evading Russia's air defense with drones; or covert pro-Ukraine groups are working within Russian territory, evading security services.

They nonetheless have their limits.

Bob Hamilton, a retired US Army colonel and head of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia Program, recently told The Washington Post that Ukraine doesn't have the drone capacity to "strike deep inside Russian territory at enough targets to erode Russia's will to fight."

But the drone attacks are still an embarrassment — analysts told The Wall Street Journal that Russia has lost the use of more military planes sitting idle in its airfields than it has over Ukrainian airspace.

Ben Hodges, a former commander of US Army Europe, told Insider's Erin Snodgrass that the strike on the Tupolev-22 had effects on morale both in Russia and Ukraine: "There is a psychological aspect to this," he said.

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"The Russians need to know all the BS they're hearing from the Kremlin is BS. And the Ukrainians need to know their government is striking back against Russia."

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