Russia is changing tactics to try to capture the city of Avdiivka and plans to fight through it 'block-by-block,' ISW says

• Russia could be planning a "block-by-block" assault on the city of Avdiivka, a think tank said.
• Russia's monthslong attempts to encircle the city have been blocked by Ukrainian resistance.

Russian forces might have abandoned their plans to encircle the city of Avdiivka and plan to fight through it "block-by-block," the think tank Institute for the Study of War said.

Russia is conducting a three-pronged attack on the eastern Ukrainian city, which involves encircling it from the south and north and fighting in the city's eastern quarter, the UK Ministry of Defense said in an intelligence update on Saturday.

However, the ISW assessed that Russia's attacks on the city's flanks are on a smaller scale than when they began their assault on the town in October and that Russian forces are now focused on fighting in the city's southern residential area.

Russian forces may be trying to make tactical gains by brute force, as they did in the bloody battle of Bakhmut, per the ISW.

Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs Major Maxim Morozov said this week that Russian forces have amassed 40,000 troops near Avdiivka and plan to storm the city.

Future fighting in the city will likely resemble other instances of urban warfare in Ukraine, where Russian forces conducted attritional assaults for marginal gains, the ISW said.

Russia has already suffered major personnel and equipment losses since it began its attempts to seize Avdiivka.

A Ukrainian military spokesperson said this week that there is an area "the size of a football field" with over a hundred bodies of Russian soldiers" and a "whole graveyard" of Russian military equipment north of the city.

Many of these losses were caused by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle munitions, according to UK intel.

Ukrainian counter-attacks are holding Russian forces back, and the UK Ministry of Defence said the city will likely remain in Ukrainian control over the coming weeks.

Ukrainian forces' main supply route remains intact, and they are conducting local counter-attacks against Russian troops, too, the UK said.

Russian forces are reportedly attempting to bypass Ukrainian fortifications by trying to enter the city's edges using service tunnels.

The UK department said that Russia's assessed main priority appears to be capturing the city as part of its mission to capture the entire Donbas region.