Russia has likely 'resorted to limiting' its Black Sea operations as its damaged navy goes on the defense against Ukraine: UK intelligence

• New orders from Sergei Shoigu indicate Russia is scaling down its ambitions in the Black Sea, per the UK MOD.
• Ukrainian attacks have forced the Black Sea Fleet to focus on preserving its assets, the UK MOD said.

Russia is indicating that it's reducing the scope of its naval operations in the Black Sea amid Ukrainian strikes on Moscow's fleet there, the UK's Ministry of Defense said.

In an intelligence update on Tuesday, the ministry noted a visit by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the fleet's command post in Crimea, during which the Kremlin emphasized new measures to defend its naval assets against Ukrainian attacks.

The new focus indicates that Ukraine's attacks have prompted Russia "to increase its efforts to preserve its fleet in the Black Sea," the UK update said.

"The Russian Navy has highly likely resorted to limiting its operations to the eastern Black Sea as its losses mount and its threat perceptions increase," the update added.

During his visit, Shoigu singled out the fleet's need for defense drills against air and drone attacks, which he told troops to train for "day and night," per the Russian defense ministry.

The Kremlin also seeks to deploy large-caliber systems and machine guns specifically to strengthen the Black Sea Fleet's defenses, the Russian ministry said.

Ukraine claims to have sunk about a third of Russia's naval assets in the Black Sea, with its forces leaning heavily on strikes and exploding uncrewed boats instead of an official navy.

One of its latest declared victories over the Black Sea Fleet — considered the most formidable naval force in the region — involved an exploding drone attack on the Russian warship Caesar Kunikov.

A video of the February 14 attack surfaced earlier this month on Russian mil blogger channels, showing the crew of the Caesar Kunikov trying to shoot incoming drones with machine guns. Another video, released by Ukraine, showed the ship sinking.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's repeated strikes on the Black Sea Fleet have forced the Russian navy to disperse its assets from its main base in Sevastopol to smaller facilities.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said Shoigu's orders to shore up the Black Sea Fleet's defenses allow him to either gain political influence or shield himself from potential fallout — depending on how the defense effort goes.

"Shoigu's posturing to protect the BSF sets conditions for Shoigu to either take credit should the BSF become more effective at protecting itself against Ukrainian strikes or blame other commanders should the BSF fail in this effort," the think tank said in a Sunday update.

Russia's losses among the Black Sea Fleet, including the flagship Moskva, marks a positive sign for Ukraine's war effort as it struggles this year to curb Moscow's advances on land, largely due to a dwindling flow of international aid.

Russia's defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours.