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Russia has likely launched its fiercest attack since the start of the year in Ukraine, UK intel says

Oct 17, 2023, 18:04 IST
Business Insider
Ukraine's 55th Separate Artillery Brigade fires a Caesar self-propelled howitzer toward Russian troops near the town of Avdiivka, Ukraine, May 31, 2023.REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi
  • Russian forces launched their "most significant" assault since at least January 2023, UK intel said.
  • Russia is attempting to retake the strategic village of Avdiivka and beyond.
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Russia has likely started its "most significant operation" since the start of the year, with a coordinated offensive in the heavily fortified village of Adviivka in eastern Ukraine, British intelligence said on Tuesday.

"Russia's attack is likely being carried out with multiple armored battalions, which are attempting to envelop the town," the UK's Ministry of Defence said in a daily intelligence update.

The update described the offensive as likely "the most significant offensive operation undertaken by Russia since at least January 2023."

Last week, Russia launched a major attack on the village of Adviivka, which Ukraine retook earlier this year, but reports since then have pointed to significant Russian losses.

"Entrenched Ukrainian forces have so far likely held back the Russian advance, with the latter sustaining heavy equipment and personnel losses," the MOD said on Tuesday.

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The strategic village of Adviivka is a "major obstacle" to Russian forces reaching their larger goal of seizing control of the Donetsk Oblast, the MOD said.

According to British intelligence, Russia's slow progress has likely caused it to switch its narrative from one of "offensive" to one of "active defense," as the chances of retaking Avdiivka in the near future are dwindling.

The Washington DC-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War made the same point on Monday, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be trying to temper expectations of a big advance in the region.

Speaking on Russian state television on Sunday, Putin referred to the offensives in Avdiivka, Kupyansk, and Zaporizhia as an "active defense," per the ISW.

Russian forces have previously targeted Avdiivka, located south of the war-torn city of Bakhmut, with fighting in the area turning it into "a place from post-apocalyptic movies," Ukrainian officials said earlier this year.

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Russia has "not stopped either assaulting or shelling positions around the city," the head of the city's military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said on Ukrainian television late last week, per the news agency Agence France-Presse.

"It is very heated, very heated," he added.

Despite the sustained attacks, Russian troops have so far failed to achieve any significant breakthrough, having "marginally" advanced about 1.8 miles south of the village, the ISW reported, citing geolocated footage.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described Avdiivka as the site of some of the country's fiercest fighting in a speech last Thursday, adding that Ukrainian forces had "already destroyed hundreds of occupier's armored vehicles" there.

In one of its latest assaults on the city, Russia lost at least 33 armored vehicles and 15 tanks, Insider previously reported.

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