- Putin is seeking to wear down Western support for Ukraine with a war of attrition.
- There are signs it's working and Western backing for Ukraine may be beginning to flag.
At the Valdai Club conference Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin gloated over the potential impact of Western support for Ukraine ebbing.
"Imagine, if the supply is cut off tomorrow, you'll have a week to live, when the ammunition runs out," Putin told the conference.
The Russian president has been playing a long game, wagering that Western resolve in helping Ukraine battle the Russian invasion was weak. In recent days there have been indications that it might be paying off.
Cracks appear in West's support for Ukraine
In the US, Congress is currently split on whether to send more aid to Ukraine, a move opposed by Republicans in the House who recently unseated its speaker, Kevin McCarthy.
In Slovakia, a far-right party opposed to Ukraine aid won the general election; while in Germany support for the far-right AfD is surging on similar rhetoric.
If this winter brings more high fuel prices and inflation, exacerbated by the war, it could further erode public backing for large aid bills.
President Joe Biden's assurance that the US would back Ukraine "as long as it takes" appears optimistic to some.
"Putin is fighting a war of attrition, betting that Ukraine lacks sufficient population, weapons, and ammunition to sustain the war for years on end, and that the West lacks both the capacity and the political will to sustain its support for Ukraine for 'as long as it takes,'" said George Beebe, the former head of the CIA's Russia analysis unit.
While Putin initially hoped to seize control of Kyiv in days, he had to overhaul his strategy in the face of a fierce fightback from Ukraine and instead seemed to settle on a plan to grind out a victory slowly.
A war of attrition, say analysts, plays to Russian strengths, like its ability to manufacture more weapons and ammunition than Ukraine, and its much larger population.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's economy is struggling under the weight of the conflict and it is heavily dependent on Western aid.
"There are more and more signs that he's correct," Beebe told Insider of Putin's bet.
"Ukraine is not meeting its conscription goals, its economy is sagging under the weight of the war, and enthusiasm is waning both in the US and Europe for maintaining high levels of aid to Ukraine."
If Western aid were to dry up and Ukraine's resistance be seriously weakened, it's unclear how long Ukraine would be able to mount a resistance for — but at the very least Russia could transform Ukraine into failed state in permanent crisis.
Putin faces threats of his own
But there are also risks for Putin in an attrition strategy.
Ukraine has yet to make a true breakthrough in its counteroffensive, but has achieved advances in the south that could crack Russian resolve.
A notable series of successes could lead to a new wave of public support for Ukraine, and damage Putin's internal credibility. The Russian president faces his own domestic problems, including economic stagnation, and a military low on morale and modern equipment.
"Success in battle can have knock-on effects elsewhere. All Putin's other worries – about the economy, public opinion and the state of his armed forces – become more serious if there are further military setbacks," wrote Lawrence Freedman, an emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London, in the New Statesman magazine in August.
The Russian president's strategy, said Beebe, is premised on the view that that "the Russian people (and its elites) will be able to sustain their patience with this 'go slow' approach."
There were signs that patience was cracking in June, when the Wagner mercenary group launched a rebellion against Russia's military leaders over what they claimed was an excessively cautious and ineffective strategy in Ukraine.
Putin dealt with the uprising, with its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin dying in a mysterious plane explosion in August — but the deep divisions that prompted it are still there.
In recent weeks, Ukraine has stepped up attacks deep in Russia itself using long-range drones. Some of the attacks seem designed to provoke Putin, with targets including the wealthy estate outside Moscow where he lives and the Crimean bridge that he counts as one of his proudest achievements.
A massive Ukrainian attack could force Putin to retaliate with a large attack on Kyiv or Lviv, driving a narrative that tips public opinion in the US towards Ukraine.
"Putin is aware of these potential pitfalls. He has commented many times about how Ukraine and its 'Western masters' are trying to draw him into a trap and depart from his attrition strategy. Whether he can stay the course on attrition remains to be seen," said Beebe.