Putin's plan for winning the war in Ukraine could be starting to become reality
- Vladimir Putin has long bet that Western support for Ukraine will begin to weaken.
- The US Congress is in turmoil over Republican Party opposition to Ukraine aid.
As the right wing of the Republican Party tipped Congress into chaos over its opposition to committing more money to Ukraine, the Kremlin took a victory lap.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesman, said the turmoil was a sign of things to come — that Western support for Ukraine would begin to collapse.
Analysts have long deduced that this is a crucial part of President Vladimir Putin's plan: to stay in the fight so long that the West gets tired of helping Ukraine.
"Fatigue over this conflict — fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime — will grow in various countries, including the US," Peskov said.
The US congressional dispute centers on a new multibillion-dollar aid package to Ukraine, the latest in a series of massive cash and weapons packages that have proven vital to Ukraine in its battle against Russia's invasion.
The isolationist far-right faction of the House GOP has opposed the package, even forcing out former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the issue.
The Pentagon has said it has billions of pre-approved aid still to give — but that will, at some point, run out.
The US, meanwhile, is not the only nation showing Ukraine fatigue.
Last week, a far-right party won the election in Slovakia after running on a pledge to end support for Ukraine, with which it shares a land border.
In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, whose leaders have long nurtured ties with Russia and opposed Ukraine aid, is surging in the polls.
Even if European support holds firm, The Wall Street Journal this week reported Ukraine's European allies would struggle to make up any shortfall from US aid drying up.
Several news stories this week conveyed variations on a single theme: Western allies saying they had already given most of what they were prepared to give.
Putin's bet
Analysts say Putin has long bet on Western support for Ukraine weakening as high fuel prices and inflation driven by the war continue to dent household budgets.
The Russian defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, has projected that the conflict could last until 2025, the year after the US presidential election. Russia seems committed for the long haul.
US intelligence officials cited in The New York Times this week said Putin was doing his best to amplify anti-Ukraine sentiment, gearing up a widespread disinformation campaign aimed at the US.
George Beebe, the former director of the CIA's Russia analysis unit, told Insider that Putin was wagering that Ukraine lacked the resources and support to win a war of attrition with Russia.
"There are more and more signs that he's correct. Ukraine is not meeting its conscription goals, its economy is sagging under the weight of the war, and enthusiasm is waning both in the US and Europe for maintaining high levels of aid to Ukraine," he said.
"If Congress falls into complete disarray, aid could also suddenly collapse, which would be bad news for Ukraine and also for the prospects for any negotiated end to the war."
He described in an article for the Quincy Institute what could come next.
US and European reluctance could feed each other, he said, in turn eroding morale in Ukraine and making it even harder to support its fight.
"The combination could produce a tipping point at which the gradual erosion of Western support for Ukraine spills into an abrupt reduction or collapse," he wrote.
Other analysts believe the Kremlin's victory lap may be premature.
A new poll by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs indicated that most Americans, about six in 10, still backed aid to Ukraine, though support was falling among Republicans.
The Belgian think tank Bruegel in June found popular support for Ukraine in the EU was holding firm despite a slight dip.
"Support for Ukraine has remained strong, suggesting that the public understands fully the wider implications for European security of the outcome of the war," said its researchers.
But it noted that in a volatile and unpredictable geopolitical climate, Western leaders faced tough challenges in maintaining the support that keeps Ukraine in the fight.