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Putin's embattled defense minister, Shoigu, appeared in a video released after the Wagner mutiny that experts say is confusing and feels off

Jun 27, 2023, 02:39 IST
Business Insider
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov (R), commander of troops of the Western Military District, visit the advanced control post of Russian troops involved in Russia-Ukraine conflict, at an unknown location, in this picture released June 26, 2023.Russian Defence Ministry/Handout via REUTERS
  • Russia's defense chief appeared in a video released after the Wagner Group's armed rebellion.
  • Moscow published the video, purportedly showing him in Ukraine, but it's unclear when it was filmed.
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appeared in a video Monday that seemed aimed at portraying a sense of normality for Moscow's military. It appeared to mark his first public showing since the Wagner Group launched its short-lived armed rebellion over the weekend.

In the 47-second video shared to Telegram by Russia's Defense Ministry, Shoigu seems to visit the forward control center of a Russian troop formation at an undisclosed location in occupied Ukraine. But shortly after the video was published, experts and journalists pointed out on social media several confusing and strange aspects of the clip.

Russia's Defense Ministry said Shoigu was briefed on battlefield operations by Col. Gen. Yevgeny Nikiforov, who can be seen in the video reviewing blurred-out information and documents on a table. Moscow didn't say when exactly the footage was taken, though the intention seems to be to signal that it was recent footage, and in one scene, Nikiforov's wristwatch is also blurred.

"The blurring of Yevgeny Nikiforov's watch and the time displayed on Sergei Shoigu's watch - 12:48 — is further evidence the video is old; the Russian Ministry of Defence published the video at 8:13am," Jimmy Rushton, a journalist and independent security analyst, wrote on Twitter.

Rushton's assessment was also emphasized by Mark Krutov, a correspondent at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Russia service who said the watch was likely blurred out because it depicted the date, indicating that the video may not have been filmed very recently. Some Russian military-blogger channels have arrived at the same conclusion, that the video of Shoigu was older footage.

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The blurred watch of Russian Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov.Screengrab/Russian Ministry of Defense via Telegram

Experts also called attention to the fact that the video was completely silent, and they noted some unusual physical attributes of the command center.

"Mindef Shoigu emerges (on MOD social media anyway) in a strange silent video, in a perfectly clean facility, with few staff and no decor except an icon and hung up sign," Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corp. think tank, said in a Twitter thread. "Some are saying this is old. Maybe. I'm also saying it's weird."

She added: "Unless there are prior videos looking this way, this place does not have the lived in look of a wartime CP. they could have tacked up that sign in an otherwise completely bare room. This looks like it could be in a basement or relocation facility. It's unusual."

While the video appeared strange to viewers, it may indicate that the Wagner Group's armed rebellion over the weekend had little influence on Shoigu's job security, though that's hard to say for sure.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the notorious Wagner mercenary organization, has long criticized Moscow's military leadership over its handling of the war in Ukraine. In the feud that has often spilled into the public eye, Prigozhin has frequently directed his grievances toward Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who is the commander of Russian operations in Ukraine.

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In this handout photo taken from video released by Prigozhin Press Service, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, records his video addresses in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023.Prigozhin Press Service via Associated Press

Tensions reached a boiling point Friday when Prigozhin accused Russia's Defense Ministry of carrying out a deadly strike on Wagner positions in Ukraine, killing a significant number of his men. Russia denied the allegations, but it didn't stop Prigozhin from openly encouraging his mercenaries to take up arms against the Defense Ministry in open rebellion.

Wagner fighters quickly captured the southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don before continuing on toward Moscow as the capital city readied its defenses. But before Wagner made it there, the Kremlin cut a deal that involved sending Prigozhin into exile in Belarus, effectively ending the revolt in one day with limited equipment losses on both sides.

Ukraine seized on the historic and chaotic weekend to point out weaknesses within Russian leadership and encouraged Moscow's soldiers to focus on their domestic problems.

"The longer Russian aggression lasts, the more degradation it causes in Russia itself," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an address to the nation Sunday. "One of the manifestations of this degradation is that Russian aggression is gradually returning to its home harbor."

Wagner fighters deployed in Rostov-on-DonREUTERS/Stringer

Western officials, meanwhile, said the short-lived mutiny managed to expose serious cracks within Russian President Vladimir Putin's hold on power and greatly undermined his leadership as his forces defended against a Ukrainian counteroffensive along multiple sectors of the front.

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Sixteen "months ago Putin was on the doorstep of Kyiv in Ukraine looking to take the city in a matter of days, erase the country from the map," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told ABC News on Sunday, adding: "Now, he's had to defend Moscow, Russia's capital, against a mercenary of his own making."

"We continue to monitor the ongoing situation in Russia," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Monday. "The events over the weekend are an internal Russian matter and one more demonstration of the big strategic mistake that President Putin has made with his illegal war against Ukraine."

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