Putin thinks he still has a good shot at victory in Ukraine as US aid stalls in Congress: report

• Western observers think Putin still believes he can win in Ukraine, The Guardian reported.
• The outlet cited unnamed officials who assessed that Putin has been emboldened by US aid drying up.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is still optimistic about defeating Ukraine as the war drags into its third year, The Guardian reported on Wednesday, citing Western officials.

The outlet did not say how many officials provided this assessment, nor did it name them.

The officials said Putin continues to hold "maximalist goals of subjugating Ukraine," per The Guardian.

Still, it appears the Kremlin hasn't laid out much of a strategy for doing so, the outlet reported.

"We do not believe Russia has a meaningful plan beyond continuing to fight in the expectation that Russian manpower and equipment numbers will eventually tell," the officials said.

They said Putin has likely been emboldened by Russia's taking of the town of Avdiivka on Saturday, the Kremlin's most notable victory since capturing Bakhmut in May.

On Tuesday, the Russian leader said that the Kremlin's forces should continue to push into Ukraine in the face of Kyiv's withdrawal from Avdiivka, known as the "gateway" to Donetsk.

"As for the overall situation in Avdiivka, this is an absolute success, I congratulate you. It needs to be built on," Putin told Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in the Kremlin, per a translation by Reuters.

Moscow is widely believed to have thought that it would take Ukraine in a matter of days when it invaded in February 2022. It's since backpedaled on its declared war objectives when the invasion turned into a costly, two-year slog.

This Western assessment, however, indicates that Putin still believes the Kremlin's original goals for the war can be achieved.

The Russian leader may also have been encouraged by the US stalling aid to Ukraine, the Western officials told The Guardian.

Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka came as GOP lawmakers seeking US border control reforms started blocking aid packages to the country, resulting in dire ammo shortages for Kyiv's forces.

Russia has also taken heavy casualties throughout the war, and was reported in December to have lost 13,000 troops and more than 220 combat vehicles in the monthslong battle for Avdiivka.

As Ukraine pulled out of the town two months later, it said Russia had lost 30,000 troops and 400 vehicles, though this was not independently verified.

Western estimates say that in total, Ukraine has suffered 200,000 casualties by the end of 2023, while Russia is thought to have lost 315,000 men.

But analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said earlier this month that Moscow has enough equipment and manpower to sustain its high casualty rate for two years as it ramped up weapons production and military recruitment.

Former President Donald Trump, who is running for the White House in 2024, has also said that he disagreed with the Biden administration's style of funding for Ukraine, with observers fearing that he may pare down military aid packages or turn off the tap completely for Kyiv.