Poland says missile strike near Ukraine border was likely an accident caused by misfiring Ukrainian air defense

• On Tuesday missiles struck Poland, a NATO member, prompting reports blaming Russia.
• Poland's president said Wednesday the missile appeared to have been from Ukraine's air defense.

Poland on Wednesday said the missile that killed two people in the country appeared to have come from Ukraine's air defense systems, and not from Russia.

The blast in Poland on Tuesday happened close to Ukraine's border and came amid a broader Russian barrage of missiles at sites across Ukraine, raising the prospect that one had missed its target.

But Poland's President Andrzej Duda said on Wednesday that he did not believe that was what happened, though he still ultimately blamed Russia.

Duda said on Wednesday after a meeting of his country's security council that the missile appeared to have come from Ukraine's air defense system as it fired back against Russian attacks, according to a statement from his office.

"We currently have no evidence that the missile was fired by the Russian side," he said, according to a translation by The Wall Street Journal.

He added that Russia was ultimately to blame, as its attacks were why Ukraine was defending itself in the first place.

Duda said there was no indication that it was a deliberate attack on Poland, or that the missile was fired by Russia, but said that the projectile was most likely Russian-made.

US President Joe Biden also said that information so far suggested the missile may have come from Ukraine.

"I don't want to say that until we completely investigate it but it is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia — but we'll see," he said after a roundtable with G20 leaders on Wednesday morning.

Three US officials also suggested to the AP that the missile came from Ukraine, citing early intelligence assessments and speaking on the condition of anonymity.

A source told Reuters the same theory, saying that Biden told G7 and NATO allies that a Ukrainian air-defense missile was to blame.

A strike from Russia would have dire consequences: as a NATO state, Poland can rely on other countries including the US to come to its aid, including potentially declaring war.

But Poland and Ukraine are allies, meaning the reaction will likely be different if the missile came from Ukraine.

Other nations and alliances steered clear of reaching a firm conclusion earlier on Wednesday.

Leaders of the UK, France, and Germany urged against jumping to conclusions.

NATO confirmed the strike on Poland and the casualties, and is holding an emergency meeting on Wednesday. It has not commented on the missile's origin.

Russia, meanwhile, has denied any involvement, and also said that Ukrainian systems were to blame.

Ukraine had initially blamed Russia on Tuesday, but an advisor to Ukraine's defense ministry was more restrained when talking to CNBC on Wednesday.

He said it was a "very sensitive" issue and noted world leaders were being deliberately cautious: "It is too early to give any definitive answers and it's very dangerous to jump to any conclusions."