Sweden has remained more open than other countries like the US and UK.- Schools are in session and some restaurants, gyms, and other businesses are open.
- Sweden's death rate is higher than its neighbors, but it's about the same as the US, UK, and Italy.
- Sweden's experience suggests we might be able to "optimize" our lockdowns without losing control.
- A version of this post first appeared in "
Insider Today ," a daily email written by Henry Blodget and David Plotz. To receive it in your inbox, please sign up here. - Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
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Alas, the US and most western European countries do not appear capable of throttling it as successfully as these countries, at least under current leadership.
Without extensive testing, tracing, and isolation capabilities, the US and most European countries have had to resort to the bluntest tool imaginable to try to "flatten the curve" and stop the coronavirus from overwhelming them: "Shelter in place" lockdowns.
Happily, this approach is working, and the spread has slowed.
But in the four to six weeks that we've been locked down, we've crippled our economies and upended our lives without putting ourselves on a path to eliminating the virus. So until we develop an effective vaccine or treatment, we're going to have to learn to live with it.
Happily, in the past couple of months, we've also learned more about how the virus spreads and how various lockdown approaches work.
The key point on the latter is this:
Lockdowns aren't binary — "open" or "closed." They include a range of tactics with various levels of severity.
Based on the experience of other countries, as well as what we've learned about the virus, we may be able to "optimize" our lockdown approach without losing control.
For example, it has become clear that the virus primarily spreads indoors. Outdoor activity appears to be pretty safe — especially with distancing and masks. So we can probably safely open parks, beaches, and other outdoor spaces as long as responsible measures are followed.
Based on Sweden's experience, we may also be able to relax some other lockdown restrictions.
Life in Sweden is not "life as usual." Professional sports are cancelled. Large gatherings are banned. Small businesses must encourage distancing.
But Sweden's restrictions are not as severe as some other countries', including the US's and UK's. Primary and grade schools are open, for example. As are most businesses.
This looser approach has costs. As the charts below show, Sweden is seeing a lot more coronavirus deaths than neighboring Scandinavian countries like Norway. Sweden's economy has also taken a major hit, albeit not as big a one as the economies of the US or Norway. But Sweden's "curves" on cases and deaths are similar to those of the US and UK despite its looser lockdowns.
Put differently, Sweden is doing about as well (or badly) as the US, UK, Italy, and Spain, without disrupting daily life and business as much as the latter countries have.
Norway daily deaths (impressively low and trending down):
Sweden daily deaths (about 10 times worse than Norway, but flat to down):
US daily deaths (Flatter than Sweden):
Of course, it's important to compare "deaths per capita." So here's a chart of that, too, for many countries. Obviously, we would all like to do as well as Norway or South Korea. But the US and UK have already have already blown their chances at that. And now, despite looser lockdown measures, Sweden is in the same range as the US, UK, Italy, and Spain.
Deaths per million inhabitants, seven-day rolling average (from Our World in Data):
Again, if we could get a better handle on the virus, as more competent countries like Norway and South Korea have, that would be the best approach. But based on the last two months—and on the ongoing lack of a coherent "virus elimination" plan from our federal leadership—we don't seem capable of doing that.
So we need to explore ways to live with the virus without completely losing control. And Sweden's approach — open schools and businesses with significant precautions — may provide a helpful model.
A version of this post first appeared in "Insider Today," a daily email written by Henry Blodget and David Plotz. To receive it in your inbox, please sign up here.
Read the original article on Business Insider