JD Vance's win in Ohio is a sign Trump still has immense sway over GOP voters
- JD Vance won the GOP US Senate primary in Ohio after getting Donald Trump's endorsement.
- Vance trailed his rival Josh Mandel in polls in March; Trump endorsed him in April.
JD Vance's victory in Ohio's Republican US Senate primary displayed the power a highly sought Donald Trump endorsement might have in moving the needle on GOP races.
Vance was called the winner in the Ohio primary Tuesday with 32% of the vote, clinching the GOP nomination over his rival Josh Mandel.
Vance's race had been widely watched by analysts as a measure of whether Trump's backing of a candidate still mattered and the extent to which the former president still affected Republican voters.
In March, Vance was trailing in the polls with warnings — even from a super PAC supporting him — of what seemed to be an impending loss. But Vance quickly moved up in the polls after getting Trump's endorsement in mid-April.
Local officials urged Trump not to endorse Vance, encouraging him to pick another candidate. Trump himself suffered some blowback from the Vance endorsement, even among his diehard right-wing base, particularly in light of the way he seemed to overlook Vance's past comments about him.
Vance has a well-documented history of criticizing Trump. In one exchange with his former college roommate, Vance said he thought Trump could be "America's Hitler."
Vance's win appears to indicate that Trump's backing matters.
"MAGA is alive and well, and the GOP best take notice and finally understand where the people are," Donald Trump Jr., the former president's eldest son, tweeted after Vance's win.
"Anybody who dismisses Donald Trump as not a major factor in the party is crazy," Dave Carney, a veteran national Republican consultant, told NBC News.
"When Trump endorsed Vance, on April 15, Vance was third at about 10%, behind Mandel and Gibbons each at 21%," tweeted the political commentator Bill Kristol, the director of the advocacy organization Defending Democracy Together.
"Without Trump's endorsement, Vance almost certainly stalls out at 10% and finishes fourth. When Trump talks, Republicans listen," Kristol added.
Trump has recently endorsed candidates the GOP might view as risky, including Vance and Dr. Mehmet Oz, with advisors fearing that a high-profile loss of a desired Trump candidate would call into question his image as the Republican kingmaker.
The former president has not shied away from doling out endorsements. According to Ballotpedia, Trump has made 160 endorsements since leaving office.
Some of the candidates he's backed have struggled in their races, including the Georgia gubernatorial candidate David Perdue and Rep. Mo Brooks of Alabama, who is running for a US Senate seat. Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks when the congressman began flagging in his Senate bid, saying Brooks "went woke."
The former president has also claimed credit for high-profile wins by GOP figures, including Glenn Youngkin's gubernatorial victory in Virginia. Youngkin did not campaign with Trump and seemed to keep his distance from the former president. That didn't stop Trump from endorsing Youngkin, however, and crediting his November win to "MAGA voters."
Vance is now set to face off against the Democratic candidate Tim Ryan. Both are seeking to replace GOP Sen. Rob Portman, who is retiring.