In Ukraine's counteroffensive, 'the big fireworks are still to come,' a war expert says

• An expert said "the big fireworks are still to come" in Ukraine's counteroffensive.
• George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War spoke to The Counteroffensive substack.

Sparks are flying as Ukraine's counteroffensive begins, but a war expert says the "big fireworks are still to come."

George Barros, the geospatial intelligence team lead and Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, spoke to The Counteroffensive on Tuesday, explaining that the main attack hasn't happened yet.

He told the Substack that Ukraine's been attacking Russian troops in smaller groups numbering in the hundreds, and that we'll know the main event has started "when we see more battalion-size, or brigade-size, attacks" in the thousands.

Ukraine has used these smaller attacks to get a read on the enemy ahead of their larger effort, as well as mislead and misdirect it to draw out Russian reserves to create openings in the lines, Insider previously reported. And it's resulted in some gains.

These advances, however, have cost Ukraine precious lives and some Western-provided equipment, including American-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and German-made Leopard tanks. Combat losses are expected though, as Russia has spent months bracing for this offensive, and experts have cautioned against drawing conclusions from these losses this early in the operations.

The war has long been a high-intensity fight, and casualties are high. Since Russia invaded Ukraine unprovoked in February 2022, the war has killed at least 8,900 civilians and injured another 15,400, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights estimates. Leaked numbers from the military in April estimated that up to 43,000 Russian troops and 17,500 Ukrainians have died on the battlefield.

This is a critical moment for Ukraine, and when Ukraine's main counteroffensive push kicks off to retake its territory, there won't be a question whether it's happening — it will be very clear.