In February, the CDC outlined a chilling 'hypothetical' scenario about how the coronavirus could spread in the US. It was shockingly close to reality.

Natalie ColarossiApr 18, 2020, 19:22 IST

Health care professionals take a break awaiting patients as they test for COVID-19 at the ProHEALTH testing site in Jericho, New York, March 24, 2020.Steve Pfost/Newsday RM via Getty Images

In February, before anyone could know what would come of the coronavirus outbreak in the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an eerie set of "hypothetical" scenarios.
At that point, there were only 60 confirmed cases in the US, but the CDC warned that more cases, person-to-person spreading, and an "overloaded healthcare system" was possible.
Two months later, the US now has the worst outbreak in the world, with nearly 700,000 cases and at least 36,000 deaths.
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On February 27, the US had only 60 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, and zero reported deaths.

Today — just 45 days later — the country has become the epicenter of the virus in the world, with more than 640,000 cases and at least 31,000 deaths.

But Americans didn't expect it to move this fast. Just two months ago, life was largely business as usual in the US, and many didn't see the virus as much more threatening than the common flu. Even the US government dismissed early fears that the outbreak could become severe.

But experts had been warning about the impact of COVID-19 from the beginning. Towards the end of February, the CDC issued an outline of what "could" happen in the US if the virus continued to spread.

Predicting overwhelmed hospitals, school closures, and widespread transmission, the CDC's "hypotheticals" are now shockingly close to today's reality.

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So far, the coronavirus has infected at least 2.2 million people and killed 153,000 worldwide. The US has the highest case total in the world.

The CDC also predicted that "Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy."

Amid these predictions, the CDC warned that "At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it."

"Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed," the CDC predicted.

The CDC also predicted that "Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected."

The CDC outlined the possibility that "Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths."

The agency predicted that "Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism."

The CDC warned that "Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time."

"It's also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States," the CDC predicted.

Toward the end of February, the CDC predicted: "It's also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States."

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