Russia can keep up this level of fighting intensity in Ukraine for 2 more years, NATO country intel says

• Lithuanian intelligence estimated that Russia can hit Ukraine hard for two more years, per Reuters.
• Support from Iran and North Korea will also impact how long it can fight intensively, the intel said.

One of Ukraine's firmest allies in NATO said Russia can continue its war in Ukraine with the same force for the next two years, according to Reuters.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Lithuanian intelligence chief Elegijus Paulavicius said that Russia's current resources would allow it to continue this level of warfare.

He added: "How long Russia is be able to wage the war will also depend on the support for Russia's military from states such as Iran and North Korea."

The assessment contrasts with the more optimistic picture given late last year at the Pentagon, which said that early 2023 would probably bring a decline in Russian capability, predicting that it would be forced to rely on degraded weapons and ammunition.

Russia launched a rare large-scale bombardment of exploding drones and high-powered missiles in Ukraine on Thursday, many of which managed to evade Ukraine's defenses.

It was an apparent attempt to break past the war's ground front lines, which have been largely deadlocked for weeks.

Russia is estimated to have lost about half of its total number of modern tanks in the past year of war, and is said to have a severe backlog in manufacturing new ones.

However, it still has thousands of older tanks in storage ready to be deployed, per figures from of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a military think tank.

Russia has also taken delivery of drones from Iran and ammunition from North Korea throughout the war.

A written reporting accompanying Paulavicius' remarks, cited by Reuters, said "long chains of intermediaries" are in use to evade sanctions and obtain Western technology for other weapons.

Multiple investigations of downed drones used by Russia in Ukraine have revealed Western parts in their construction, despite both Russia — and Iran, which also supplies drones to the conflict — being under international sanctions.

The report also said that international sanctions are having a limited effect on Russia's ability to fund its military, Reuters reported.

Lithuania, along with other Baltic states, has been among the most vocal critics of President Vladimir Putin's expansionism, as Insider's Sinéad Baker reported, and makes frequent calls for more generous support for Ukraine from Europe.