- Hamas' attacks on Israel on October 7 aimed at derailing Saudi-Israel talks, analysts say.
- Israel's attacks on Gaza have sparked fury in the region, imperiling years of diplomacy.
In early October, President Joe Biden seemed poised to achieve a historic prize: normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the most powerful country in the Middle East.
The discussions were part of a process which began in 2020 under President Donald Trump, when Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates began formal diplomatic relations with Israel, bringing economic and military benefits.
The process went so smoothly because it ignored the hardest issue to resolve: what to do about the Palestinian territories.
On October 7, ignoring that suddenly became impossible — which was likely just what Hamas intended.
Its militants rampaged through southern Israel, killing 1,400 Israelis, kidnapping and torturing others.
Israel's retaliatory attacks on Gaza killed thousands more, badly straining its delicate relations with its Arab neighbors.
Protesters in Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco are demanding that their leaders punish Israel, and reverse the diplomatic gains of recent years.
On Thursday Bahrain, one of the original signatories of the Trump-era Abraham Accords, said it would recall its ambassador to Israel. It was a stark sign of its leaders' concern over the carnage in Gaza, and mounting public fury.
(A spokesperson for the Israeli government told Insider that it had yet to be directly informed of any recall.)
"Israeli war crimes in Gaza and worsening violence and oppression in the West Bank are fueling a tremendous amount of rage in the wider Arab-Islamic world," Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, told Insider.
Many leaders in the region remain shaken by the Arab Spring which felled several Middle Eastern governments a decade ago — and fear what a new popular uprising could do to their own grip on power.
"Any government in the Arab world that considers joining the Abraham Accords would face high levels of risk when it comes to potential backlash from domestic and regional groups," Cafiero said.
"Mindful of the fact that many Arab governments are worried about legitimacy crises, they can't be expected to enter the Abraham Accords—at least not any time in the foreseeable future."
This was likely part of Hamas' plan all along, say experts. The process of Arab-Israeli normalization have eroded regional power of Iran, Hamas' key backer.
Iran has long sought to portray itself as the regional power most committed to the Palestinian cause. Arab leaders are wary of Iran driving a wedge between them and their populations if they fail to channel their publics' fury about the destruction Israel is visiting on Gaza, said Cafiero.
"The question now is, would any country or countries that joined the Abraham Accords in 2020 abrogate their diplomatic deals with Israel in response to the ongoing conflict?" said Cafiero.
"Presumably there's a limit to how much carnage Israel can get away with before Arab countries pull out of the Abraham Accords. But where is that limit? I don't know," he said.
But hope, however tenuous, remains alive for those who want to see diplomacy win out.
Saudi Arabian officials have said that they remain committed to negotiations on normalizing ties with Israel, the White House said, but would likely demand concessions from the US and Israel to restart the process. The UAE has reaffirmed its commitment to the Abraham Accords, reported the Jewish News Syndicate.
Orly Goldschmidt, the spokesperson for Israel's UK embassy, insisted that ties with Bahrain remained strong, despite its statement about withdrawing its ambassador.
"We would like to clarify that no notification or decision has been received from the government of Bahrain and the government of Israel to return the countries' ambassadors. The relations between Israel and Bahrain are stable," he said.
But the longer Israel's campaign continues, and images and civilian deaths and devastation are broadcast around the world, the more public anger will build, putting huge pressure on Arab leaders to act.
It's a danger Biden seems painfully aware of, with CNN reporting that US officials are cautioning Israel over the repercussions of its attacks on Gaza, and cautioning that public support for Israel will fade.