Even without new Russian jets, Iran's aging air force could still win home-field advantage in a regional war

• Iranian state media has said the country will soon receive Russian-made fighter jets.
• It's not clear when the jets will arrive, but Iran has long sought them to boost its aging air force.

After years of rumors about Iran receiving Russian-made fighter jets, Tehran said in November that it was set to receive Su-35s in its first acquisition of foreign fighter jets in decades.

Russian fighters, along with the training jets and attack helicopters said to be included in the deal, would be a significant upgrade for Iran's air force, which fields an aging fleet of aircraft, including US-made F-14s acquired in the 1970s.

Even if the deal falls through, some analysts say Iran's current air force shouldn't be dismissed because of its advanced age. An analysis published by Shephard Media in November said that while Iran's fighter fleet might face a distinct disadvantage against modern fighters, it could still challenge a local rival, largely because it would likely be fighting over home turf and with support from the rest of Iran's military.

The Shephard analysis said Iranian aircrews also have more experience than their counterparts in Arab Gulf militaries and Iran's anti-ship and air-defense missiles could take a toll during a clash in the Persian Gulf.

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk-intelligence company RANE, said Iran could probably have home-field advantages against an otherwise superior force depending on the circumstances and the "scale and scenario" of a hypothetical attack.

"A surgical stealth strike might readily overcome Iran's air defenses, but in the case of a full-scale conventional war, Iran's air defenses combined with its aging air fleet might be able to score a handful of combat successes," Bohl told Business Insider.

Bohl pointed to Serbia in the late 1990s when its small, outdated air force faced NATO air forces and "managed to still down a handful of American aircraft," including an F-117 stealth jet shot down by an antiaircraft missile.

Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military-aviation journalist, said many of Iran's outdated fighters — including US-made F-4s and Soviet-designed MiG-29As — were "powerful in their day" and had been kept flying through cannibalizing parts, reverse-engineering, and indigenously-developed components.

"The upgrades may be janky, but arguably, it's prudent to assume they do the basic job," Roblin said, adding that Iran's air force was otherwise outdated and would "struggle to achieve much" against the "world-class" US and Israeli air forces.

Ukraine-style air denial

When Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, its larger and more modern air force was expected to overwhelm and destroy Ukrainian fighters and air defenses, but Ukraine's air force has survived and been able to deny Russia air superiority thanks to a combination of Russian missteps and its own ingenuity.

Roblin said the war in Ukraine showed how an "outdated air force sometimes can endure and impose costs" against a far more powerful adversary through "smart leverage" of their "planes' strengths without sacrificing them rashly and working the home field defensive advantage."

"Iran, like Ukraine, has a lot of surface-to-air missile systems and radar, which, if adroitly managed, can fence away hostile air-superiority jets and improve the survivability of aircraft," Roblin said. But the US and Israel are much better than Russia at leveraging air power, using long-range reconnaissance and strikes, stealth aircraft, and advanced suppression-of-enemy-air-defense capabilities.

Roblin said that in air-to-air operations, Iranian pilots would probably face problems similar to those of "Ukrainian pilots who find they can't press home attacks due to being outranged by enemy fire-and-forget beyond-visual-range missiles."

"However, I'd guess American and Israeli pilots may more aggressively close with enemy air assets than Russian ones do," Roblin added.

Su-35 — no game changer

Bohl and Roblin both expect the eventual delivery of Su-35s to have a limited impact on Iran's overall airpower.

Bohl said the jets "would ease some of Iran's defense problems by providing it with at least a limited number of advanced aircraft that might be helpful in deterring a limited air campaign."

Tehran might treat the jets as "something like prestige prize" and be reluctant to use them, in which case they may be "more of a diplomatic and political win rather than a defense breakthrough," Bohl added.

Iran might also try to use its Su-35s "cautiously as a backfield airborne early-warning plane, much like it used the F-14's AWG-9 radar during the Iran-Iraq War," Roblin said.

The Shephard analysis said that in a conflict with local rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran's aircraft and aircrews, its air-defense and land-attack missiles, the proximity of the combat zones, and its ability to bring its navy to bear might benefit Iranian forces.

Against better-armed and better-trained US and Israeli forces, however, Iran would face myriad disadvantages even if it had Su-35s. Roblin said the US and Israeli air forces had extensive advantages in training and support assets, adding that the Su-35's Irbis-E radar wasn't a stealthy active electronically scanned array radar such as those typically found on newer American and Israeli jets.

The Irbis-E "basically lights up the aircraft to all observers in the neighborhood" when used at full power, Roblin said, adding that the US or Israel would probably "go out of their way" to destroy Iranian Su-35s on the ground and that it wasn't clear whether Iran could dodge those strikes as well as Ukraine.

While the Su-35 is a first step to modernizing Iran's air force, the 24 that Tehran is apparently receiving will only be a limited upgrade.

"Given Iran's economic circumstances, the cost of even more 4.5-generation jets would likely be exorbitant, and the huge sums could be spent on military capabilities with a better-guaranteed bang for the buck, like ground-based air defenses, drones, or ballistic missiles," Roblin said. "Iran's air force and its tentative modernization look more useful, though, if considered as a defense against less capable regional enemies or even internal uprisings."

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.