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Even the experts who study Congress don't know how this House speakership drama will end

Oct 14, 2023, 19:34 IST
Business Insider
Despite former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's historic ouster, the sign is still up as the House searches for a new leader.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
  • House Republicans ended Friday without naming a new House speaker.
  • Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio is the party's new nominee for the post, though it's not clear if he has the votes.
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House Republicans are still hunting for a way forward more than a week after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's historic ouster. For the time being, one-half of the legislative branch remains overwhelmed by drama and mostly unable to function.

Even the experts who study Congress for a living are struggling to put this moment in perspective. They've also had to scour through congressional history as they try to surmise just how much or how little actual power acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry has. (Spoiler alert: There's no agreement.)

Lawmakers left Washington Friday without any resolution, though House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan is now Republicans' new nominee.

With all this in mind, here are some key questions and a few answers about this unprecedented situation.

"We've seen a lot of what we might think of as difficulties or certainly dysfunction of governing certainly over the last year and recent years, but the notion that there is a sort-of temporary speaker in place amidst all that is going on in the country and Congress' responsibilities in the world is almost mind-boggling the difficulty Republicans are having coalescing around a leader," Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in Government Studies at the Brookings Institution, said during an interview.

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Who will be the next speaker?

Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio pauses as he talks to reporters.J. Scott Applewhite/AP

No one knows the answer yet.

According to multiple reports, Jordan won the party's nomination on a secret ballot, defeating Rep. Austin Scott, a six-term Georgia Republican who is so little known that even some of his Democratic colleagues had to Google his name. Jordan's victory may be short-lived as Republicans have now established that winning a majority of the conference's support doesn't guarantee victory on the House floor. In a separate vote, 55 House Republicans reportedly indicated that they would not support Jordan on the floor.

For now, lawmakers appear poised to vote on the floor next week. It's unclear what will happen if the anti-Jordan crowd continues to hold firm. If Democrats unite in opposition, Jordan can likely only afford to lose four Republicans.

How does this end?

The exact timing is unclear.

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Congress is historically motivated by deadlines, but there's nothing forcing House Republicans to move forward. Some might hope that the sheer embarrassment of becoming an ungovernable chamber might spark a breakthrough, but that hasn't changed anything. Some more centrist House Republicans have floated cutting a deal with Democrats, but this is still very unlikely.

The federal government will run out of funding on November 17, though the threat of a shutdown doesn't set a direct deadline for the speakership race.

We do know that a new speaker must be elected by a full House vote. Based on the rules, a would-be speaker needs to secure a majority of lawmakers voting for a named candidate. Right now, the likely threshold is 217 votes.

What's happening in the House right now?

Not much.

McHenry has gaveled the chamber in for perfunctory morning business, such as the prayer and Pledge of Allegiance. He's then declared the House in recess meer minutes later. He's also declined to refer bills to committee, another power a usual speaker would express. Most notably, he kicked former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Minority Leader Steny Hoyer out of their hideaway offices in the Capitol. After Hamas' surprise attack, McHenry, a North Carolina Republican, who leads the Financial Services Committee, told Politico that the government would ask if Israel requests additional aid.

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"If you don't have a speaker there's not much you can get done, it's kind of the first thing you have to do in the House," Matthew Green, a professor of politics at Catholic University told Insider.

Green pointed out that a lot of the major actions Congress and the House are known for require majority support, something that Republicans are clearly struggling to show.

"At this point, the acting Speaker pro temp is not the leader of his party," Green said. "So things like trying to build a coalition or set the agenda that is not something Patrick McHenry feels comfortable doing and there is nobody in the Republican Party who is doing that."

The major distinction between now and the days-long drama in January is that committees can and have continued to hold hearings. There are a number of hearings slated for next week on everything from Iran to biosafety standards, though the schedule could change.

There are some important questions though, including about subpoena power.

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Can the House do more?

Maybe.

To back up for a second, McHenry is leading the chamber only because McCarthy, after finally becoming speaker in January after days of his own drama, wrote his name down in a once-secret letter to the House clerk. The rule creating McHenry's position was created in 2003 in a post-9/11 effort to ensure continuity of government. His ascension to temporarily leading the chamber due to party drama was never on the minds of those who created it. This is also the first time anyone has held the post since its creation, meaning basically every action McHenry takes is setting a precedent.

One thing that is clear to pretty much everyone is that McHenry is not in the presidential line of succession, meaning that in the event of a catastrophe, the normal second in line would simply be skipped over.

Why do people disagree about McHenry's power?

The rule creating the position is ambiguous. The relevant part of the rule states, "Pending such election the Member acting as Speaker pro tempore may exercise such authorities of the Office of the Speaker as may be necessary and appropriate to that end."

Some argue that creating a position with the continuity of government in mind makes little sense if that person couldn't actually do anything of importance. Rep. Jim McGovern, the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee, has argued the opposite. His office put together a two-page document explaining why McHenry's position is "strictly ministerial and the position's sole role is to guide the House toward the election of a new Speaker or Speaker pro tempore."

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Is there a way to resolve the dispute over McHenry's power?

Yes. Binder laid out three ways this could be resolved. One, McHenry could try to do something that is disputed, such as refer a bill to a committee or schedule a floor vote for a bill. Someone, likely a House Democrat, may try to challenge the move. The House Parliamentarian would be asked to weigh in. Eventually, the entire House would vote on upholding the action. In this way, McHenry's powers are technically only limited by what a majority of the House would support.

The two other ways Binder laid out are less confrontational. The first would be to formally elect McHenry or someone else to a time-limited speakership. As Roll Call reported, under the current rules an elected speaker pro tempore would have more power than someone who was designated to the position.

Lastly, the House could simply change its rules or pass a resolution laying out what McHenry's powers would be.

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