Don't believe the hype: Global fertility rates are falling but it's nothing to panic about, population expert says

• A rising number of women choosing not to have children is leading to a global drop in fertility rates that could cut some of the largest nations' populations in half, according to a recent study.
• While the study results have been described as "jaw-dropping" by some researchers, others say that fertility rates have been declining for years and warned it doesn't reveal anything "groundbreaking."
• Sarah Harper, a professor at the University of Oxford, told Insider that declining birth rates are not a cause for alarm.

Amy* knew from a young age she never wanted to have children.

While her childhood friend loved playing with dolls and always wanted to speak about what it would be like to have babies, Amy never took an interest and classified herself as more of a tomboy.

"I just never had the maternal feelings that she had for human babies," the 46-year-old social worker from Pasadena, California, told Insider.

"This was never something I was torn over. I enjoy the company of children, but babies terrify me, and I would much prefer to have a family of animals than humans," she added.

Amy chose to be child-free from a young age, but several other factors arose throughout the years that solidified this decision.

First, there were personal reasons: In her early 40s, after years of feeling like there was something "wrong" with her, the social worker came out as non-binary.

"I now accept myself as who I am, but it does explain why being a mother is not something I ever felt compelled to be," she said.

On top of this, Amy listed the climate crisis, a global resurgence in right-wing ideology, and, more recently, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, as other factors that have confirmed her decision.

"I just would not want to bring my child into the world with the current geopolitical climate," she added.

Amy is part of a growing movement of women making the same decision, affecting global fertility rates.

Global fertility rates are dropping at a rapid speed

A recent Lancet study made headlines around the world.

It predicted that almost every country's population would shrink and some will halve by the end of the century because women have fewer children.

The study also found that 183 out of 195 countries are predicted to have fertility rates below the replacement level. Combined with an aging population, the result could become a "demographic time bomb" — in other words, when there aren't enough young people to support the economy and older generations.

But while researchers described the results as "jaw-dropping" and "worrying," it has received a massive push-back within the academic community.

Sarah Harper, a gerontology professor at the University of Oxford who previously served as director of The Royal Institution of Great Britain, told Insider: "We have to be very cautious about the statements made in this study. The paper actually revealed nothing new or groundbreaking."

Harper, an expert on population change, is one of 178 signatories of an open letter from demography experts sent to The Lancet objecting to the study "questioning some of the assumptions behind the modeling."

"We've known for a long-time that in high-income countries, women are now able to choose the number of children they want, and there will be a section of women who want to be child-free and women who want to have one or two children," Harper said. "That is a pattern that has already been very well established, we know the drivers."

Harper said that while these types of studies tend to trigger alarm and panic, countries should not worry if their population is not growing.

"In European countries particularly, where women are given decent childcare, they're actually choosing to have two children," Harper said.

"So my view is that much of the population will probably still increase. Women being able to choose the number of children they want is a good thing, it's something we know is there, we can adapt to it, and we shouldn't be frightened of it," she added.

The Oxford professor also notes that the idea that you need a booming population to grow a nation's economy is "outdated."

"How we define old has changed tremendously. If you're a 70-year-old today in high-income countries, they are more similar to 50-year-olds in their parents' generation. In other words, we're fitter, we're healthier, and we can work longer," Harper said.

Coronavirus won't affect fertility rates in the long-term

In particular, the US has been reporting a steady decline in fertility rates for several decades now, with 2019 seeing a historic 35-year low in the number of births in the country.

It is unclear how the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and public health crisis will affect these fertility rates.

While there have been some reports of the lockdown triggering a baby boom — especially among the world's top 1% — others say that many families choose to opt-out of having children because of the resulting economic recession.

Harper believes the two will cancel each other out.

"To be perfectly honest, the drivers are both ways. Some sections of the population will feel like they can't afford to have a child, but other sections will feel that because their life has already been disrupted, they might as well have children. And they will tend to compensate for each other," she said.

"Without any doubt, coronavirus is going to be a shock of the next decade at least but when we get to the end of the century, it will just be something that happened in the earlier years," she added.

Harper believes that by publishing studies like the Lancet report, researchers make people assume that the solution to the problem of falling fertility rates is to pressure more women into having children - when really, it's a natural process.

"I'm not just being an optimist, but from all the research there's been in the field, I can guarantee that we're fine. We have had and still have lots of time to prepare for it."

*Name has been changed.

• Read more:
• What pregnant women should know about the coronavirus
• A 36-year-old woman got an $18,000 charge for her fertility medications — and it reveals a disturbing problem for the US healthcare system
• I got COVID-19 while pregnant after months of strict isolation, and my case remains a medical mystery
• How men and women can increase fertility to get pregnant