- Ukraine is reporting severe shortages of ammunition as it continues to fight back against Russia.
- Delays in Western aid have helped Russia launch at least three offensive operations, the ISW said.
Western delays in ammunition and aid to Ukraine have likely helped Russia launch offensive operations on at least three fronts, military experts said.
The Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War said in an update on Sunday that delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine "are likely helping Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations along several sectors of the frontline in order to place pressure on Ukrainian forces along multiple axes."
These shortages, and the potential for no further aid being given by the US, have "likely encouraged Russian forces to exploit the situation" to launch offensive operations over the past few weeks, it said.
Ukrainian soldiers have said they are running low on critical weaponry and ammunition, leaving them unable to properly fight back.
Russian forces are conducting at least three offensive operations, the ISW said: along the Kharkiv-Luhansk in Ukraine's northeast, particularly around Kupyansk and Lyman; in and around the eastern town of Avdiivka; and near the village of Robotyne in Ukraine's eastern Zaporizhia region.
It warned that these attacks will "likely hinder Ukrainian forces from preparing personnel and materiel for renewed counteroffensive operations."
The White House said this month that Ukraine could lose Avdiivka because of a lack of ammunition, despite Russia seeing larger losses there. It blamed Republicans for blocking further aid to Ukraine.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last week that "because Congress has yet to pass the supplemental bill, we have not been able to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells that they desperately need to disrupt these Russian assaults."
Ukrainian troops then pulled out of Avdiivka later in the week.
On Friday, the commander in chief of Ukraine's armed forces said he had decided to pull out "to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen."
The ISW said that ammunition shortages were why Ukraine could not defend Avdiivka properly, saying "delays in Western security assistance, namely artillery ammunition and critical air defense systems, inhibited Ukrainian troops from defending against Russian advances in Avdiivka."
A Ukrainian soldier who was hit by shrapnel while fighting in Avdiivka told the BBC last week: "The enemy has a lot of everything, of every type of equipment, while we have almost nothing."
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian commander said his unit is low on ammunition for its US-supplied Howitzers. "My crew and other crews are just waiting for it then we're ready to work around the clock," he said.
Late last month, Ukraine's defense minister said his forces could only fire a third of the shells that Russia can fire each day.
Ukraine is busy trying to increase its domestic production of ammunition, but Russia, which is much larger and has more domestic resources, is also doing the same.