Colombia's president says the latest kingpin to be captured is as big as Escobar. That may not be a good sign.

• Colombia's president compared the recent capture of the kingpin known as Otoniel to that of Pablo Escobar.
• Escobar's death was a blow to his cartel, but many smuggling groups have emerged to replace him.

Mexico City - The same day Colombia's armed forces captured Dario Antonio Usuga, known as Otoniel, Colombian President Ivan Duque said the arrest was "only comparable to the fall of Pablo Escobar."

Otoniel's capture is a major blow to a powerful drug-trafficking group, but many feel it is not something to brag about and fear that, as after other major arrests, the country could plunge into something worse.

Otoniel, first a member of the guerrilla organization Ejercito Popular de Liberación and later a prominent paramilitary leader, rose to be the most wanted cartel boss in Colombia, with the US offering a $5 million reward for him.

Otoniel led Clan del Golfo, also called Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia (AGC), considered by Colombian authorities to be a "Class A Organized Armed Group."

US authorities say the group is the main Colombian ally of Mexico's powerful Sinaloa Cartel, partnering with it to profit from drug-trafficking and human-smuggling rings worth millions of dollars.

He now faces charges related to drug trafficking, the killing of police officers, recruitment of minors, and sexually abusing children, according to US and Colombian authorities.

Who's next

The vast quantities of cocaine that Otoniel smuggled drew comparisons to Escobar and the infamous Medellin Cartel, but many Colombians saw Duque's pronouncement as a media stunt, as Escobar's involvement in terrorism and national politics sets him apart.

"It was a political stunt to get some press attention and legitimize [his] administration," Carlos Bohorquez, a Medellin resident, said of Duque.

"To me, having lived through the Escobar years, Otoniel has nothing to do [with it]. But it doesn't mean it was not a good thing that he was arrested and put behind bars," Bohorquez said.

The operation that led to the arrest - which involved 500 Colombian special-forces personnel and 22 helicopters and in which one police officer died - received major attention from Colombian politicians and diplomats.

"Congratulations! To our Police and to our Military Force. Many years of persecution of this individual who has done so much damage to the country," Juan Carlos Pinzón, Colombia's ambassador to the US, wrote on Twitter.

While many in Colombia celebrated Otoniel's arrest, others now expect rough times.

"The market has diversified immediately after Otoniel's arrest. His detention has thrown away a monopoly, opening the doors to new players," said Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a Colombia-based security and risk-analysis firm.

Guzmán said this has happened in the past, first with former Medellin cartel boss Carlos Lehder and later with Pablo Escobar.

Escobar's death and the collapse of the rival Cali Cartel allowed paramilitary groups to expand into drug trafficking while also conducting robberies, extortion, and kidnapping. Those groups were followed by "bandas criminales," which are generally more dispersed and compartmentalized - making them harder to root out and more resilient.

The AGC was the most powerful of those latter groups, and Otoniel was a demonstration of their resilience. Pinzon noted that Otoniel took over when his brother was killed in 2012.

"What is worrisome after the arrest of Otoniel is not if he was bigger than Pablo Escobar or not. [It] is who is next," Guzmán said.

'Progressive fragmentation'

Otoniel's arrest and the power vacuum it creates could lead to more violence as criminal groups fracture and compete, according to Colombian government officials.

Such fragmentation is visible in Mexico, where a decade of targeting top kingpins has caused major cartels to fracture into hundreds of gangs.

Currently there are about 10 major criminal organizations operating in Colombia, according to Indepaz, a nongovernmental group that promotes peace and justice.

"A progressive fragmentation of the criminal organization is expected, since Otoniel … was the only leader with total command and control," Gen. Fernando Murillo, who leads Colombia's judicial police, part of the National Police force, said in an interview with local media.

Differences that "transcend" internal disputes could arise among AGC members seeking control, Murillo added, predicting the group's "atomization" into smaller, less capable factions.

Murillo listed Wilmer "Siopas" Giraldo Quiroz; Jobanis de Jesus Avila, aka "Chiquito Malo"; Jose "Gonzalito" Sanchez; and Orozman Osten Blanco, aka "Rodrigo Flechas" as Otoniel's potential successors.

"Siopas" is considered AGC's second-in-command and is wanted for his involvement in organized crime. "Chiquito Malo" is in charge of production and shipment of AGC's tons of cocaine to the US. Colombian authorities have a bounty of $133,000 for his capture.

"Gonzalito" is considered "a brother" to Otoniel, according to media reports and a prominent member of the AGC. "Rodrigo Flechas" is one of the most violent criminals in Colombia, responsible for killings and kidnapping in the Cordoba municipality.

The AGC's main business is cocaine - cocaine production in Colombia rose 8% between 2019 and 2020, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime - and its main blocs still control some of Colombia's most important cocaine-producing regions.

But the group has found other lucrative enterprises.

Before his arrest, Otoniel was making millions from smuggling US-bound migrants through Colombia. His smuggling ring out of Necoclí in northern Colombia transported migrants toward the border with Panama, demanding payment for all sorts of things along the way.

An AGC operative said after Otoniel's arrest that his capture hadn't affected business, telling Insider that "the organization has continued working under a new administration."

Colombian officials have said they're working on extraditing Otoniel to the US and made clear they will keep going after whoever replaces him.

"We will continue to combat the Clan del Golfo and will not rest until this organization is finished. We're going for Siopas, for Gonzalito, for Chiquito Malo," Murillo said.