Chinese military gear may not be enough to bail out Russia's poorly led troops, former top US general in Europe says

• The US is again warning China not provide military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
• Russia's military has structural problems that foreign gear can't fix, a retired US general says.

The US has renewed its warnings to China about providing military support to Russia in response to what officials say are signs that Beijing is considering supplying "lethal" aid to Moscow, but Chinese hardware may not be enough to fix the Russian military's structural issues, according to a former commander of US forces in Europe.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued the new warning to his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, during a meeting on February 18, warning Wang "about the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia or assistance with systemic sanctions evasion," the State Department said afterward.

Blinken then went public, saying in interviews that the US has "growing concern" that China "is considering providing lethal support" to Russia — comments echoed by allies, including NATO Secretary General Jens Stotlenberg, who told the Associated Press on Wednesday that Western officials "have seen some signs" that China "may be planning" to provide Russia with arms or other support.

US officials have not specified what they have seen or what they consider "lethal" aid. On Wednesday, deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh said Chinese officials haven't taken such aid "off the table" but avoided "characterizing" what it would consist of or what "consequences" China would face for providing it. (US officials are reportedly considering releasing the intelligence on which their accusations are based.)

But more hardware may not tilt the balance if Russia's military remains unable to employ its troops effectively, according to Philip Breedlove, a retired US Air Force general who led US European Command from May 2013 to May 2016.

"Clearly, if China brings industrial mass to the problem, that's going to be a problem for Ukraine, but I still want us to have a sober view of what Russia can do, because they now have structural problems in their ability to effectively act as a unit on the battlefield," Breedlove said Tuesday during an event hosted by American Purpose and the American Enterprise Institute.

Russian forces have struggled with command-and-control throughout the war, facing issues ranging from tactical-level communications problems to a force-wide lack of experienced enlisted troops and junior officers, the latter of which has been exacerbated by heavy losses.

Russia has scrambled to replace those losses. In September, Moscow called up several hundred thousand troops, many of them older reservists or inexperienced conscripts, in a "partial mobilization." The Kremlin has also relied more on mercenaries, particularly the Wagner Group, which has stoked infighting among Russian commanders.

"You can't build a leader overnight, so even if they have huge mobilizations, they're missing those junior officers," said Breedlove, who also served as NATO's top officer. "Remember, they don't have an NCO corps like we have an NCO corps, and this sort of density of ability to lead, think, and fight independently is not something that Russia is demonstrating on the battlefield."

Ukraine's military has benefited from Western training, including training to develop noncommissioned officers, or NCOs, and has adapted its tactics throughout the war, but Russia's military appears to not be applying battlefield lessons across its force.

"In terms of Russia as a learning organization, the evidence isn't very good for the Russian side. We keep seeing them make similar mistakes," Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said at a think tank event Wednesday.

While lower-level Russian units have been able to adapt, "I think the big problem in the Russian military is that the culture is not very conducive to" learning, added Lee, an expert on Russia's military. "It's very top-down. It's not bottom-up, and so when when there's developments at the bottom level, those do not make it the top level" because Russian generals are not "open to learning."

Russian military leadership failings and inability to perform under fire will limit the utility of whatever hardware Beijing may provide, Breedlove said.

"You can pile stuff on top of bad leadership, bad execution, and bad skills, and yes, the mass will have some ability, but I think the real limit now of the Russian military is their soldiers and the leaders of their soldiers and the strategic leaders of the leaders of their soldiers," Breedlove said. "They have demonstrated a lack of capability and proficiency on the battlefield."

While China has generally avoided violating international sanctions on Russia, Beijing has provided consistent political and economic support and rejected Western criticism of its close ties with Russia.

Asked about Blinken's warning at a press conference on February 20, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said it was "the US, not China, that has been pouring weapons into the battlefield. The US is in no position to tell China what to do."

While US officials have not specified what military support China may provide, there are signs Russia is using artillery ammunition more sparingly. Russia's missile stocks also appear to be dwindling, prompting it to repurpose air-defense and anti-ship missiles to attack ground targets in Ukraine, often inaccurately.

Moscow has looked abroad for supplies, using drones and missiles from Iran and reportedly seeking rockets and artillery rounds from North Korea. The US released photos in January that it said showed North Korean "material" on its way to Russia.

Ukraine faces similar supply issues. While Ukrainian leaders have secured hundreds of Western-made tanks and are looking to acquire Western-made fighter jets, Western officials say that air-defense systems and ammunition, particularly artillery ammunition, are still top priorities for the ongoing aid effort.

Both sides are now preparing for major operations this year — a Russian offensive appears underway already — and support from their partners will be central to how the war unfolds in the coming months.

"A lot of this depends on foreign support," Lee said Wednesday. "A lot depends on artillery ammunition and availability, and those things are really hard to predict six months in the future because who knows if China, North Korea, NATO, how much they'll provide and how much they can provide."