- Leaked US documents reveal what could prompt China to begin arming Russia, reports say.
- A Ukrainian attack on Russia using NATO weapons could be a red line for China, they say.
Leaked Pentagon papers spell out the circumstances that US officials believe could prompt China to get involved in the Ukraine conflict and begin arming its ally Russia, reports say.
The US Defense Department documents posted online appear to contain extensive discussion of the Ukraine conflict, and of China's military plans and capabilities.
They say that a Ukrainian attack on Russian territory using weapons supplied by NATO would compel Beijing to act, according to The Washington Post and CNN, who have reviewed the documents.
US officials believe that if Ukraine were to strike a significant strategic target or leader in Russia it could be further justification for China to cross a red line and send lethal aid to Russia, reported the Post.
The documents say that, according to US intelligence, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had earlier this year discussed using drones to strike Russian deployment lines in Rostov Oblast, which borders eastern Ukraine, CNN reported.
The US has been hesitant to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles amid concerns they could be used to strike targets in Russia, and potentially escalate the conflict.
China could use Ukrainian attacks in Russia "as an opportunity to cast NATO as the aggressor, and may increase its aid to Russia if it deems the attacks were significant," said CNN, citing the leaks.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, China has trodden a careful path, seeking to portray itself as neutral in the conflict. More recently it has acted as a peace broker, while also providing Russia with key diplomatic and economic support. At a recent summit in Moscow, China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin renewed their "no limits" cooperation pact.
But Russian setbacks on the battlefield, and reports that Russia has suffered steep casualties and equipment shortages, have prompted claims that China could start providing lethal aid to Russia.
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in March told NBC News that if China were to provide such aid, it would "alienate" it from the world.
China has denied the claim, and said it has provided weapons to neither side in the war, while accusing the US of stoking the conflict by providing Ukraine with billions in aid and weapons.
Analysts have told Insider that if Ukraine makes significant battlefield gains in the Spring it could prompt China to act and escalate its support for Russia.
The leaked papers suggest that it is attacks within Russia itself that would draw China into the war.
The Pentagon has said it is investigating the source of the leaks, which were posted on platforms including Discord and 4Chan.