China can't use civilian ships to invade Taiwan just yet, but it's getting there, says former US intelligence officer

• China's military has been conducting large-scale exercises with civilian ships, per an analyst.
• At least 39 merchant vessels were recorded supporting the Chinese navy in 2023, wrote Michael Dahm.

China's fleet of civilian ships earmarked for war is unlikely to successfully invade Taiwan until at least 2030. Still, Beijing is making steady progress on that front, according to a senior analyst.

The Chinese military conducted at least 33 exercises with merchant vessels in 2023, falling short of the 38 such activities it conducted in 2022, wrote Michael Dahm, a retired US intelligence officer who is now a senior research fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

However, at least six of the exercises last year involved five or more ships in coordination, up from just three such events in 2022, wrote Dahm in a report published on Thursday by the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute.

One of the largest exercises in 2023 involved 14 cargo ships that could deliver as many as 1,000 military vehicles and 2,000 troops in around three days, Dahm wrote.

These civilian ships are mostly used to ferry military assets, particularly for beach landings, in exercises focused along the Taiwan Strait, Dahm added.

Such vessels are typically designed to allow wheeled vehicles to roll on or off the ship instead of being lifted on board.

Dahm wrote that last year also involved the first time that China's military was observed using large deck cargo ships, which usually can carry fewer vehicles but are more numerous.

"While deck cargo ships with their open decks may not be suited for long-distance voyages with military vehicles and personnel embarked, they may be an adequate and plentiful choice for the PLA to lift military forces short distances, such as across the Taiwan Strait," Dahm wrote.

China might also use open-deck civilian ships as sea-based landing pads for helicopters, he added.

China 'clearly' creating military doctrine for civilian fleet

Using satellite imagery and publicly available sources like state TV, Dahm recorded 39 Chinese merchant vessels supporting the Chinese navy over 812 ship days last year, with the bulk of activity occurring in the late summer.

In 2022, 36 civilian ships were used in exercises over 733 ship days, according to Dahm.

The exercises mostly involved ships departing from and landing in Chinese ports but could be used to simulate landings in Taiwan, Dahm wrote.

If the Chinese military could seize Taiwan's ports, "civil maritime ships might then surge into Taiwan ports and harbors with second echelon forces and logistics," Dahm wrote.

Alternatively, the civilian ships can be used to rapidly transport military resources along China's coast during war, he added.

But Dahm also cast doubt on the likelihood that China can successfully use its merchant fleet anytime soon for an amphibious invasion, at least without devastating casualties.

"As of this writing, a full-scale invasion of Taiwan prior to 2030 would probably be an extraordinarily high-risk endeavor for the PLA, one that would likely result in very high losses, especially among its supporting merchant fleet," Dahm wrote.

Yet China is making progress, finding ways to potentially reduce losses and risks, Dahm added.

"The PLA is clearly developing required procedures and increasing proficiency using civilian ships for logistics and landing operations," he wrote.

Requisitioning civilian vessels for military use hearkens to the Ships Taken Up By Trade practice from the UK, which used cruise liners, freighters, and tankers to carry troops and supplies during the Falklands War in 1982.

China has, in recent years, pushed aggressively for direct cooperation between its civilian and military sectors, compelling its tech and science industries to work with the People's Liberation Army directly.

Cross-strait tensions have worsened as Beijing says it will eventually retake Taiwan through force if necessary. Meanwhile, it bristled as the self-governing island in January elected William Lai Ching-te, whose ruling party campaigns heavily on resisting China.