Belarus' second-rate dictator Lukashenko is 'humiliating' Putin by bragging about how he saved Moscow from an armed Wagner revolt, experts say

• Belarusian President Lukashenko says he helped negotiate an end to the Wagner Group's armed mutiny.
• He later bragged about how he managed to negotiate with Yevgeny Prigozhin, who wouldn't talk to Putin.

Wagner Group mercenaries appeared ready to clash with Russian soldiers defending Moscow from a sudden armed rebellion over the weekend. Hail-mary negotiations, mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, stopped the potential bloodshed in the capital.

Lukashenko, a second-rate dictator and close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has since seized on the opportunity to boast about how he saved Moscow from the mutiny — "humiliating" the Russian leader for being unable to do this himself, war experts say.

After Wagner fighters captured the southern city of Rostov-on-Don early Saturday, they continued north toward Moscow as the city prepared its defenses for battle. By that point, Wagner fighters had already shot down several Russian military aircraft. But as his fighters closed in on the Russian capital, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the mercenary organization, called off the insurrection he started less than a day earlier thanks to a deal cut with the Kremlin that saw him exiled to Belarus.

Negotiations were brokered by Lukashenko, who gave a detailed — and, at times, rambling — account of separate conversations he had with both Putin and Prigozhin during a Tuesday ceremony in Minsk.

By Lukashenko's account, Putin called him on Saturday and stressed that he was unable to get in touch with Prigozhin, who answered immediately when called by Lukashenko later that morning. The two went on to hold several rounds of talks.

According to Lukashenko's remarks, a translation of which was provided by state-run news agency BelTA, Prigozhin's initial exchange with the Belarusian president was profane, but it got results. Lukashenko later said that he instructed his media and press secretary "not to make a hero out of me" for cooling down the situation. At one point, Lukashenko said he even talked Putin out of assassinating Prigozhin.

Lukashenko's account suggests the Belarusian leader "successfully mediated a crisis within Putin's own inner circle that Putin could not," experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, wrote in a Tuesday assessment. Lukashenko's intervention was likely an attempt to show the Kremlin that he can "operate successfully and independently within Russian politics," ISW experts said.

"Lukashenko's boasting about his ability to manipulate power brokers within Putin's innermost circle is humiliating for Putin, whether or not it is true," the assessment noted. "The fact that Putin has not challenged Lukashenko's presentation of events and has in fact publicly thanked Lukashenko is even more humiliating."

Indeed, Putin earlier this week addressed the nation and said he was thankful to Lukashenko for helping to bring an end to the chaotic and short-lived mutiny, which Western officials have said highlights serious cracks among Russia's military leadership and undermines the Kremlin's authority.

Belarus' role, which has supported Moscow's war in Ukraine and is often seen as a Russian puppet state, did not end solely with negotiating an end to the mutiny. Putin said in his speech that Wagner fighters could leave the country and go to Belarus to be with Prigozhin, return to civilian life in Russia, or sign contracts with the defense ministry.

It's not immediately clear exactly how many mercenaries have decided to flee to Belarus, but some media reports suggest camps are being built for the exiled fighters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that he doesn't believe Wagner fighters who relocated to Belarus are a threat because they lack a sizeable force.

When asked during a Tuesday briefing if a Wagner presence in Belarus poses any security concern for the upcoming NATO summit in neighboring Lithuania, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the US has seen "no indication at this point of any type of additional military activity" that "presents a threat."