- In the past few days, Ukrainian forces have captured thousands of square miles of lost territory.
- Ukraine launched two counteroffensives amid expectations it would concentrate solely on the south.
After Russia's invasion failed to achieve a swift victory in Ukraine, the conflict turned into a bloody war of attrition, a brutal fight consuming manpower and resources as Russia's war machine ground to a halt. In what appears to be a new phase in this conflict, an unexpected Ukrainian counteroffensive punch looks to have Russian forces on the run.
For months, Ukraine has been telegraphing a coming counteroffensive, emphasising the strategic southern city of Kherson, the first major city to fall to invading Russian forces early in the fighting.
The Russian military responded by reinforcing its defensive positions in what was perceived as Ukraine's sole priority with some of Russia's more capable units and in some cases drawing forces away from other regions, leaving them with weaker defenses.
Ukraine launched a southern counteroffensive as expected, but its forces also struck in the northeast near Kharkiv in a major surprise offensive last week that few saw coming.
And Russian forces in this region appear to be rapidly retreating as Ukraine makes swift and sizable gains.
—ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 12, 2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that the Ukrainian armed forces had recaptured more than 6,000 square kilometers, more than 2,300 square miles, of territory.
Ukraine, with the support of billions of dollars in aid and weaponry from the US and other partner nations, has recaptured more territory in the past few days than the Russian forces have been able to capture in months.
The majority of these battlefield gains were made in the area around Kharkiv. There has been progress around Kherson, but Ukraine's advance is slower and more costly in the south, where the fighting is largely attritional.
Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at CNA, told War on The Rocks that the two operations "are both interrelated and concurrent offensives," suggesting moves around Kherson were not a feint.
He explained that "the Kherson offensive is meant to proceed over the course of months and to attrition Russian forces there and put them in a tenable position" in which Ukraine could eventually liberate the area, giving it a foothold from which it could threaten additional Russian territorial holdings in the south, such as occupied Crimea or Mariupol.
Warfare experts have characterized the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive moves as a "masterstroke," "a superb feat of arms," and a "massive operational success," especially considering that Ukraine was able to build up its sufficient forces near Kharkiv without giving away its intentions. Kofman called this a "colossal military intelligence failure" on Russia's part.
"The Ukrainians very clearly have the initiative, and they have been exploiting it" through disinformation and deception campaigns, as well as artful moves on the battlefield, George Barros, an expert with the Institute for the Study of War, told Insider.
"From a campaign design perspective," he said, "it is very intelligent to bring the best Russian units into an attritional fight in the south and put them in bad terrain, put them in the crosshairs of Ukrainian indirect fires, and then attrit those forces slowly while simultaneously hollowing out Russian positions elsewhere to enable sequenced Ukrainian maneuvers."
While Ukrainian actions are operationally important, the strategic impact long term remains to be seen.
There are indications though that Ukrainian forces are forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin into a no-win situation with only bad options: reinforce the Donbas at the expense of positions in the south or reinforce the southern areas and potentially lose more territory in the east.
"The design of this campaign," Barros said, "is to rob the Russians of the initiative, rob them of good decisions, and force the Kremlin to have to make a series of bad decisions because, essentially, they only have bad options left."
Ukrainian war efforts, as ISW explained in its most recent update on the conflict, continue to further undermine Putin's objectives in Ukraine, none of which have so far been achieved despite substantial losses on the Russian side.
A senior Pentagon official told reporters Monday that around Kharkiv, the Russians "largely ceded their gains to the Ukrainians and have withdrawn," with some retreating across the border into Russia.
—ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 12, 2022
Mick Ryan, a strategist and retired Australian Defense Force major general, wrote on social media Monday that "it is too early to speak in overly triumphant terms," as Russia still has the ability to respond.
"The Ukrainians have won a significant victory," he said, "but there is still a war to be won."
That said, he explained, "what we have seen over the last few days has been a superb feat of arms, underpinned by good planning, intelligence, leadership and above all - battlefield courage from the Ukrainian armed forces."