A new analysis of COVID-19 deaths estimates the patients might otherwise have lived much longer — regardless of underlying condition

• A recent study from researchers at the University of Glasgow sought to learn more about COVID-19's effects on life expectancy, specifically whether those dying of the novel coronavirus might otherwise have soon died of an underlying condition.
• The study, which is awaiting peer review, estimated that the average years of life lost for a sample of coronavirus patients in Italy when controlling for a set of common underlying conditions was 13 years for men and 11 years for women.
• The researchers noted that while they noticed a dramatic effect, their results could not control for all underlying conditions or differences among nationalities and did not adjust for other factors like smoking.
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A new study has modeled how a sample of COVID-19 patients who died might have been expected to fare without an infection, and the results were stark.

On average, the group of several hundred patients in Italy who were infected by the novel coronavirus died more than a decade sooner than what would otherwise be expected, even when controlling for several common underlying conditions, according to estimates in the study conducted by researchers at the University of Glasgow in Scotland.

The researchers had been trying to learn more about COVID-19's effects on life expectancy, specifically whether those dying of the novel coronavirus might otherwise have soon died of an underlying condition.

The study, which is awaiting peer review, focused on the statistical measurement called "years of potential life lost," or the time a person would be expected to live if they didn't die from a health event like COVID-19. The researchers used data from the World Health Organization and other groups and accounted for age, sex, and underlying health conditions when making their estimates.

The researchers concluded that "there appears to be a considerable burden in terms of years of life lost, commensurate with diseases such as coronary heart disease or pneumonia."

The study estimated that the average years of life lost for its sample when controlling for a set of common underlying conditions was 13 years for men and 11 years for women.

The researchers noted that their results could not control for all underlying conditions or differences among nationalities and did not adjust for other factors like smoking. It also did not adjust for severity of underlying conditions, though the researchers said they did not expect that to significantly alter their findings.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to clarify the findings of the University of Glasgow researchers and removed references that incorrectly suggested the study made estimates about "lasting health impacts" the coronavirus might have. The study focused specifically on how long a group of people who died of the virus might otherwise have lived without catching it.