A desperate Russia may be just what North Korea needs to finally update its ancient Air Force

• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Russia in September on his first overseas trip since 2019.
• The visit was seen as Russia's attempt to secure North Korean support for Moscow's war in Ukraine.

During a six-day trip to Russia in September, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, traveling abroad for the first time since 2019, met with a litany of senior Russian military officials and with Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.

The Russian officials on hand — including the defense minister, the commander of the navy, and the commander of the long-range bomber force — reflected Moscow's desire to court Kim's regime, which is sitting on stockpiles of weapons and ammunition that Russia could make use of in Ukraine.

Their presence also hints at what Russia may be willing to offer to get access to those stockpiles. There were multiple remarks about deeper defense cooperation, including discussion of "strategic and tactical coordination, cooperation and mutual exchange" between their militaries during Kim's meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to North Korean state media.

Over the course of the visit, an emphasis on the aerospace sector became clear. Kim met Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, toured production lines at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant, and inspected Russian fighters, bombers, and attack aircraft at Knevichi Airfield.

While many have noted that Russia's need for military support amid its struggles in Ukraine means Moscow may be more willing to help Pyongyang with its nuclear and missile programs, visits to so many aviation sites suggest Kim may have his eye on something else: updating North Korea's aging and dilapidated air force.

Korean People's Army Air and Anti-Air Force

North Korea's air force, officially called the Korean People's Army Air and Anti-Air Force, or KPAAF, has been regarded as the weakest branch of the North Korean military for much of the past 30 years.

The KPAAF traditionally relied on the Soviet Union and China for new aircraft, but its access to those suppliers was largely curtailed after the Cold War. While some aircraft components have made it into North Korea, international sanctions placed on the country over its nuclear-weapons program during the past three decades have degraded its domestic aerospace industry, preventing it from building its own jets.

Today, the KPAAF can really only boast about its size. With an estimated 110,000 personnel, it is the second-largest branch of the military, with more than 900 combat aircraft, according to a 2021 US Defense Intelligence Agency report. (Other estimates put that fleet at about 500 combat aircraft.)

Almost all those aircraft are hopelessly outdated. About 400 are believed to be MiG-15s, with another 350 believed to be MiG-17s, -19s, and -21s — the most recent of which was introduced in the late 1950s. The KPAAF also has an estimated 80 Il-28 1950s-era bombers and 200 AN-2 propeller-driven biplanes, which first flew in the late 1940s.

The KPAAF does have a small number of more modern MiG-29 fighters, MiG-23 interceptors, and Su-25 attack aircraft that were acquired in the late 1980s and early 1990s and are tasked with defending Pyongyang.

Despite its size and a recent uptick in activity, the KPAAFs combat capabilities are likely minimal compared to its enemies'. In addition to preventing acquisition of new combat aircraft, international sanctions prohibit the sale of spare parts and jet fuel, further hampering the KPAAF.

Consequently, the KPAAF has had to cannibalize many of its aircraft for spare parts to ensure that an acceptable portion of its inventory remains airworthy. Only about 18 of the original 35 MiG-29s are believed to be serviceable, for instance, and KPAAF pilots are estimated to get just 12 to 25 flight hours a year.

Most of the KPAAF's strength lies in its air defenses. It has a range of advanced surface-to-air missiles, and the area around Pyongyang has "one of the most dense concentrations" of anti-aircraft artillery in the world, the DIA report said.

Kim's visit

Given the North Korean air force's needs, it's easy to see Kim's visit as something of a prospective shopping trip.

Kim's first stop after meeting Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome was the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant, which builds Su-27, Su-30, and Su-35 jets and the fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighter.

Accompanied by North Korea's defense minister and the KPAAF commander, Kim strode down the factory floor inspecting unfinished Su-35s. Kim was particularly interested in the Su-57 and got a close look at the stealth fighter's cockpit.

After inspecting civilian aircraft under construction, Kim and his generals observed a test flight of a Su-35, which North Korean state media said "brilliantly demonstrated the combat performance of the latest airplane" and "left a deep impression on the spectators."

After the factory visit, Kim boarded his armored train and headed for Knevichi Airfield, just north of Vladivostok, where he met Shoigu and Lt. Gen. Sergey Kobylash, the commander of Russia's long-range bomber force, who led Kim on an inspection of more Russian combat aircraft.

Kim's inspection of the Tu-95, Tu-22M, and Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers was especially noteworthy. Shoigu told Kim that one of those planes "can fly from Moscow to Japan and then back again." Kim also inspected a MiG-31 interceptor armed with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile, a type of weapon that North Korea itself is pursuing.

Denis Manturov, Russia's deputy prime minister and minister of trade and industry, said in a statement that Kim had been shown "one of our leading aircraft plants" and that Moscow saw "potential for cooperation in the aircraft-making and other industries."

North Korean state media said Kim "was deeply impressed by the rich independent potential and modernity of the Russian aircraft manufacturing industry" and "expressed sincere regard for Russia's aviation technology undergoing rapid development."

High priorities

Russia's need for North Korean ammunition, North Korea's need for new aircraft, and the aviation capabilities on display during Kim's trip all seem to suggest a looming trade, but making such an exchange would violate sanctions prohibiting arms transfers to Pyongyang, which Putin has said Russia would not do.

While Kim was in Russia, the Kremlin denied that any military agreements had been signed. "We never violate anything; and in this case we are not going to violate anything," Putin told reporters after the meeting.

"But, of course, we will look for opportunities to develop Russian-North Korean relations," the Russian leader added.

While North Korea would no doubt like to have modern aircraft, there are also indications that its satellite, missile, and nuclear-weapons programs are higher priorities.

Pyongyang has said that having a reconnaissance satellite is "indispensable" to its security and has promised to launch one in October after two failed launches earlier this year. North Korea is also pursuing more advanced missile capabilities, including hypersonic weapons, and seeking to increase its stockpile of miniaturized nuclear warheads that it can arm its missiles with.

Wherever the air force is on the priority list, Pyongyang appears committed to modernizing it or at least to adding new capabilities. In addition to increasing aerial activity, it has been expanding select airbases and showing off new drones — one of which looks a lot like the US-made RQ-4A Global Hawk.