Some college students across the country have already started their fall semesters, whether it be in-person or online. As some students choose to take online courses or are not interested in returning to college, this can affect the economy of towns dependent on college students.
Many colleges closed and transitioned to remote learning in March, causing many to report budget shortfalls. Colleges are also estimating more financial losses for the current fiscal year. For instance, Oregon State University projects a budget shortfall of $217 million, and undergraduates make up about 33.7% of the population in the university's home town of Corvallis.
Cornell University also estimates an overall budget shortfall of $210 million, even with a hybrid fall semester. The Ithaca campus of Cornell University already reported a loss of $45 million for the previous fiscal year.
There are many factors that contribute to the economies of college towns, including students spending money in the local economy and supporting businesses that employ workers. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston analyzed college towns in New England and found 45% of wages and 38% of jobs in these towns and cities come from colleges and universities.
Additionally, businesses that usually rely on students bringing in revenue have also been negatively affected by campus closures these past few months. Bloomberg CityLab interviewed a hospitality company in State College, Pennsylvania, where the main campus of Penn State University is located. Curtis Shulman, the director of operations for the company, said 60% of their revenue occurs during the academic year and 20% alone comes from football weekends.
Business Insider decided to look at the college towns that would be most affected if students don't return for in-person classes or if the university with the largest number of undergrads in the town have to move to a fully remote semester.
To figure out which college towns are the most economically vulnerable, we based our ranking on undergraduate enrollment as a share of the town or city's population. To do this, we looked at the 200 colleges and universities with the largest number of degree- or certificate-seeking undergraduates based on fall 2018 college data from the National Center for Education Statistics' Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS.) We focused on schools that are mainly four-year, bachelor-earning schools.
We then calculated the share of these undergraduates in the population of the towns and places where these large campuses are located. We used 2018 population estimates of incorporated places from the US Census Bureau and focused on those with at least 30,000 residents.
IPEDS has specific enrollment data based on whether a student is taking distance classes or not. Since we want to estimate the share of students living in the town or city, we decided to look at the total number of undergraduates who are taking either some or no distance classes, rather than all-online courses, as a share of the population.
Although many of the colleges that made the top of our list are reopening for the fall semester, a few are choosing hybrid models or going fully remote. This includes Rutgers University-New Brunswick where many of the classes will be held online and Michigan State University, which only recently decided students should learn online.
The following are 30 college towns that may be the most negatively impacted if students of the largest college campus in the town don't return or have to leave campus again, based on the share of residents of the towns that are undergrads. We included both the share of students who are normally either fully on-campus or only taking some distance-based courses and the share who are taking no distance courses.