- The 22nd annual Milken Institute Global Conference was held this week in Beverly Hills, California.
- More than 4,000 people attended, from finance and investing, to agriculture, government, Hollywood and the tech industries.
- Even with stock markets at record highs and US economic growth for the first quarter that blew past most expectations, the conference goers assembled in Beverly Hills privately fretted that the good times may soon end.
One West Coast banker is telling business owners to sell their company in the next 12 months or prepare to navigate through the next recession. An Orange County money manager is advising his high net worth clients about pushing more money into alternative investments to weather a downturn. An investment manager at a sovereign wealth fund is looking to sell whatever he can.
The three execs, who spoke on the sidelines of this week's Milken Institute Global Conference and asked for anonymity to discuss their situations, captured one of the moods at this year's conference: successful, but bracing for the worst.
Even with stock markets at record highs and US economic growth for the first quarter that blew past most expectations, the conference-goers assembled in Beverly Hills privately fretted that the good times may soon end. This was the 22nd global conference hosted by junk bond king Michael Milken, who brings together the Masters of the Universe of the finance and investing worlds for an annual celebration of capitalism, and panels on changing the world.
Over the course of three days, one topic of conversation that frequently arose among a subset of attendees: the tepid M&A market and what it means for the broader economy. The lack of deal activity - while credited by some for making this year's conference so well attended with over 4,000 - may be a harbinger of trouble ahead, according to Jason Greenberg, head of tech M&A at Jefferies. In his view, corporate c-suites and boardrooms tend to look at the next six months and use that to develop sentiment around M&A. If they're not doing deals it means that something they see has them worried, he said.
"I tend to think of M&A as the canary in the coal mine," Greenberg said on a Tuesday afternoon panel. "By the middle to the end of this year, it's either going to do what it did in 2015 - which was that businesses started to feel better again and things started taking off - or it'll end up being a precursor to a recession."
Layer on top concerns about the rising populism and calls from people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for higher taxes on the wealthy, or New York City's recently proposed pied-a-terre tax, and the attendees at this year's conference were at times uneasy and at times searching for answers.
"What's really coming is class warfare," said Alan Schwartz, the CEO of Guggenheim Partners, in another panel discussion. "Throughout the centuries, when the masses think the elites have too much, one of the two things happens: legislation to redistribute the wealth, or revolution to distribute poverty."
Despite those worries and the panel discussions, the conference remains an unabashed celebration of the world's wealthy. Expensive luxury cars made by companies like Maserati, Porsche and Tesla routinely circled the Beverly Hilton's driveway, the roar of powerful engines echoing off the hotel's portico. Off the lobby, Bombardier set up a booth to display its new Global 7500 private jet. State Street's Fearless Girl statute stood in the same spot last year.
Blackstone's Steven Schwarzman came in on Sunday wearing a baseball cap pulled low over his eyes. Apollo's Leon Black made an appearance, as did real estate titan Thomas Barrack, seen Monday outside of the Peninsula hotel, one of several nearby hotels that served as satellite meeting spaces. On Monday, Wells Fargo executives John Shrewsberry and Mary Mack held court in the center of the Waldorf Astoria's lobby. Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio was seen holding down a corner table Tuesday afternoon at Circa 55.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon was seen on Wilshire Blvd at one point, leaning against a building on a phone call, reading from a piece of paper. Tim O'Hara, the former CEO of Credit Suisse and now BlackRock exec walked through the crowd, saying hi to old colleagues.
With thousands swarming the hotel, lines snaked around corners and space was at a premium. Longtime sponsors like State Street hosted clients from cabana rooms just off the pool, while others, like Dalio or the Canada Pension Plan Investment Corp., chose to reserve tables in the hotel's restaurants. Others like Barings and Canyon Partners settled for space upstairs in hotel suites converted into meeting spaces by removing the beds. Those without space tussled over seats in the lobby bar.
And of course there were after parties. An official reception held Monday night at Ron Burkle's Soho House included appearances from former Detroit Pistons power forward John Salley and music from Limp Bizkit front man, Fred Durst. Even Milken made an appearance, mingling in a backroom where wicker lanterns hung from olive trees below a retractable roof. As he surveyed the scene, it was just another year at his eponymous conference.