Kolkata, May 8 () After scanning COVID-19 data of29 countries across the world, a group of city-basedresearchers has suggested that factors such as BCG vaccinationin developing nations like India have led to a situation wherethe rate of contamination and fatality from the disease isless than that in the developed world.
The bacille Calmette-Gurin (BCG) vaccine has adocumented protective effect against meningitis anddisseminated TB in children, according to the World HealthOrganisation. It is part of the mandatory childhoodimmunization programme in many countries including India.
"Our research showed that the rate of affected peopleis significantly lower in countries like ours than developednations which did not make BCG vaccination mandatory," saidProf Arindam Banik, director of a management institute, wholed the group of four researchers from reputed institutes.
"Such vaccination somehow dilutes the virulence ofnovel coronavirus and develops immunity among a large numberof people," he told .
Besides India, infants in countries like Portugal,Turkey, South Korea, Indonesia, Egypt and Ethiopia get BCGvaccination and all these countries have witnessed lessCOVID-19 cases. Whereas in the USA, Italy and the UK wherethat vaccination is not mandatory, a large number of peoplewere afflicted with the disease, Banik said.
The findings will come out in a prestigious journalsoon.
To calculate the rate of novel coronavirus infectedpeople, the researchers took into account 45 days startingfrom the day the first such case was reported in a country andthen divided its population by the number of COVID-19 cases.
"The 45-day period varies from one country to another.If the starting point is February-end for Italy, it is earlyMarch for England, mid-January for China and March-end forIndia," Banik told .
Asked about the contention by many health experts thatthe rate of affected people in India is no way less thancountries like the US and the UK, Banik said epidemiologistsdivide the total number of affected with total number of testsand that shows the figure on the higher side.
"We are confident that the COVID-19 situation will notbe as severe in the later phase as in Europe where black,Asian migrants were the worst-hit as the healthcare system wasless accessible to them," he said.
Besides BCG vaccination, the academician said, theyanalysed other factors that determine the fatality ratesacross 29 economies spread across both the developing anddeveloped world.
"We have explored various econometric models. Based onavailable data, our study revealed that factors such as publichealth system, population age structure, poverty level and BCGvaccination are powerful contributory factors in determiningfatality rates among those afflicted with novel coronavirus,"he said.
The findings also indicate that population agestructure can lead to high fatality rate across countries.
"The study shows that the population above 65 are atsignificant risk from COVID-19 contagion. Such findings aremore consistent in the context of Europe. According to a WHOreport, top 30 countries with the largest percentage of over-65 population, all barring Japan are the member states inEurope and these countries are severely affected by COVID-19,"he said.
Evidence shows that over 95 per cent of those diedthere are more than 65 years of age and over 50 per cent ofall deaths were people aged 80 years or older, he said.
"The WHO report also suggests that 8 out of 10 deathsare occurring in individuals with at least one underlying co-morbidity condition, particular those with cardiovasculardiseases, hypertension and diabetes," he said. SUSNN NN