Localised lockdown can temporarily halt coronavirus spread: Mathematical model prediction
Indranil Mukhopadhay, senior ISI professor and head ofthe Human Genetics Unit, told on Monday while thetemporary eradication of the "spread time" of the virus couldbe around 29 days, the time taken for total extinction can bearound 2-3 years with the virus expected to make a comebacklater but losing its sting to be a pandemic any more.
"COVID-19 being an entirely new disease, complete datafor any definitive prediction is not there and hence thefigures in our model can vary - say the 29 days limit fortemporary eradication can be 39 days but probably won't be 200days," Mukhopadhay said, pointing out that it was amathmetical model made with the available data.
The model was based on data collected from the monthof March to April 1, he said in reply to a question.
Underscoring the need for total localised lockdown,the researcher said that lockdown, in its true sense, may notbe totally enforceable in a vast and diverse country likeIndia with such a high density of population.
A focused approach where a high-risk population in acertain locality is put under intensive screening for overfour weeks is more advisable to prevent group transmission,that will result in zero infection at one point, he said.
If the number of high risk population in a locality isa bit high, there can be clusters possibly having around 50people in each group, which is called "critical communitysize(CCS)".
There can be more than one such cluster in the pocketdepending on the high risk population number in that area,Mukhopadhyay said.
The model was based on four parameters -'susceptible', 'infected', 'exposed' and 'recovery', he said.
"In our future study we have to keep in mind thesusceptibility of vegetable vendors and fish sellers inmarkets who are present every day instead of buyers who cancome once in a week or fortnight, and find out whethercurtailing regular market hours will be better for them," hesaid.
Asked about the possibility of the virus making acomeback after 2-3 years losing its lethal nature,Mukhopadhyay said, even if one infected person is identified,the local quarantine policy will be in force, where a group ofpeople, the maximum being CCS, may stay together in clusters.
The other researchers include Bandana Sen, a seniorresearcher with the All India Institute of Hygiene and PublicHealth and Sarmistha Das, a senior researcher at ISI.
"Following lockdown rules strictly is the only way tofight out COVID-19 in absence of specific treatment orvaccine," Mukhopadhay said.
ISI Director Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay said, "Ourresearchers are doing many important projects related toCOVID-19 and we are working with various government agenciesto help them fight the pandemic." SUSMM MM