La Niña conditions to take hold post-monsoon; models predict weak winter in North India
Nov 12, 2024, 16:03 IST
Indian states are finally experiencing signs of the winter’s arrival, marked by noticeable weather shifts across various regions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that northern parts of the country, including Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi, have started seeing foggy mornings. Alongside this, a gradual dip in maximum and minimum temperatures has been observed.
Amid the delayed winter, IMD has forecast neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific, with below-average sea surface temperatures in the east equatorial region. Recent models also suggest the possibility of La Niña emerging during the post-monsoon season.
La Niña, meaning "Little Girl" in Spanish, is usually associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and especially severe winters. It typically strengthens between October and February, potentially leading to harsher winters and heavier rainfall, which could impact agriculture, especially in regions reliant on winter crops.
However, the La Niña is expected to be remarkably weak this time around. “Due to climate change, normal temperatures are already elevated, and the La Niña anomaly isn’t sustaining itself,” explained OP Sreejith, head of climate monitoring at the IMD. Its mild intensity could translate to a warmer-than-usual winter for India, especially in northern regions.
La Niña can only be officially confirmed if the Oceanic Niño Index drops consistently to at least -0.5°C, a condition not yet met this year.
Forecasters, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), had anticipated a clearer shift to La Niña by mid-year, but predictions fell short. This “spooky weather,” as described in NOAA’s latest blog, reflects the challenges of predicting precise ENSO patterns amid changing climate dynamics. According to private forecaster Skymet, borderline La Niña conditions may extend into early 2025, though ENSO-neutral conditions could reappear by the second quarter of next year.
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Amid the delayed winter, IMD has forecast neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific, with below-average sea surface temperatures in the east equatorial region. Recent models also suggest the possibility of La Niña emerging during the post-monsoon season.
La Niña, meaning "Little Girl" in Spanish, is usually associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and especially severe winters. It typically strengthens between October and February, potentially leading to harsher winters and heavier rainfall, which could impact agriculture, especially in regions reliant on winter crops.
However, the La Niña is expected to be remarkably weak this time around. “Due to climate change, normal temperatures are already elevated, and the La Niña anomaly isn’t sustaining itself,” explained OP Sreejith, head of climate monitoring at the IMD. Its mild intensity could translate to a warmer-than-usual winter for India, especially in northern regions.
La Niña can only be officially confirmed if the Oceanic Niño Index drops consistently to at least -0.5°C, a condition not yet met this year.
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