The projections are so sensitive that if the daily growth rate is at 3 per cent then active numbers can reach 17,000 but if it is at 4 per cent then the state could see around 25,000 cases in about 50-60 days, Munish Moudgil, chief of Karnataka COVID-19 War Room, said in a statement.
The state currently has 9,150 cases of which 3,391 are active cases, 5,618 discharges and 137 deaths.
The compounded daily growth rate as of Sunday (for the past five days) stood at four per cent, according to official figures.
"I wish to state that expected active cases by August 15th is about 20,000-25,000," Moudgil.
He, however, underlined that it is extremely difficult to make accurate projections, particularly beyond 15-20 days because it depends on the behaviour of individual citizens post unlocking the lockdown as well as action taken by the government.
Moudgil has recommended three action points for the administration which include tracing all contacts of every patient within 24 hours and effectively quarantining them.
His second suggestion is that every inter-state passenger should be effectively quarantined for 14 days and third is increased tests and also quality which means selecting and testing vulnerable and infectious groups.
Highlighting the role of people in the fight against coronavirus, he said citizens can make a major difference by observing norms like masking up, washing hands and other hygiene and social distancing.
"Positive part of this is that every successful effort to reduce growth rate will exponentially reduce numbers. Conversely, any slip up makes us pay heavily," he cautioned. GMS SS